VisionIAS - Video Classroom Lecture

International Relations Class 02

INDIA - USA RELATIONS (CONTINUATION FROM THE PREVIOUS CLASS) (09:15 AM):

Way forward:
How to manage third country challenge?:
Draw red lines for one another.
Manage the divergences through the dialogue.
(Nature of India - USA official relationship: Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership).

INDIA AND EURASIA (09:21 AM):

India-Central Asia:
Central Asian Republics: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
They were earlier part of the Soviet Union.
In 1991, they became independent.
Caucus states: Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
They were also earlier part of the Soviet Union.
Importance of Central Asia:
Strategic location:
Located at the Heart of Asia and it connects Asia and Europe.
Hence, it has been the sphere of the Great Games, presently played between powers such as the USA, China, Russia, Europe (EU), India, Pakistan, Turkey, etc.
It was located on the ancient Silk Route (operational from the 3rd Century BC till the 15th Century AD) and therefore, it remains critical to China's BRI.
Economic importance:
i) Resource-rich region:
Kazakhstan: It has the 2nd largest Uranium reserves in the world and is the world's largest producer of Uranium.
Uzbekistan: Also rich in Uranium and Natural gas.
Turkmenistan: 4th largest reserve of Natural gas.
Kyrgyzstan: Rich in gold.
Tajikistan: Known for its hydropower potential.
ii) It represents the near abroad market to India.
iii) It can be a significant source of energy supplies at a relatively short distance.
iv) It provides an alternative to the resource-rich Middle East and Russia.
Security importance:
It acts as a buffer to contain the fallout of religious fundamentalism and narco-terrorism.
It has become particularly important in the context of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.
Importance of India to Central Asia (09:47 am):
i) As a counterbalance to the regional hegemons:
CARs since their independence in 1991 have followed a multi-vector foreign policy so as to ensure their strategic autonomy.
India helps CARs to counterbalance their traditional hegemon Russia and new hegemon China.
ii) CARs want to learn from the Indian experience of insulating their youth from religious fundamentalism.
iii) Cooperate on Afghanistan:
CAR foreign policy on Afghanistan would be guided by UNSC resolution 2593 which was adopted on Afghanistan during India's presidency of UNSC.
Evolution of India - Central Asia relations (09:57 am):
Historical ties:
Close civilizational ties existed between India and Central Asia.
Central Asia was located on the ancient silk route through which China and India would trade with Europe (export of silk, spices, and textiles along with trade in goods, there was the exchange of culture, religion, etc).
Buddhism spread from India to Central Asia and from Central Asia to Xinjiang province of China and Sufism from Central Asia to India.
In fact, Babar from Fargana Valley traveled to India to establish the Mughal empire.
During the Soviet era (During the Cold War):
Period of good ties:
Reason: Peace and Friendship Treaty between India and the Soviet Union.
The linkage sustained because of the exchange of music, culture, and dance.
Bollywood was particularly popular in Central Asia (Raj Kapoor).
Post disintegration of Soviet Union (1991 - 2010):
Newly independent CARs were created in 1991 and India had an opportunity to build on its strong ties which it had with the erstwhile Soviet Union.
However, India was caught up in domestic economic crises, in the politics of South Asia while attempting to befriend the USA.
But India in 1995, launched 'Look North Policy 'to engage with CAR.
However, it was a non-starter since we continued to look at this region more from a security perspective.
For example, civil war in Tajikistan.
2010 onwards:
Since then India begins to prioritize Central Asia.
2012: India launches 'Connect Central Asia Policy'.
It provides a framework of political, economic, and security relations with Central Asia.
2015: PM Modi's visit to all five CARs on a single trip provided a major push to India - Central Asia relations.
2019: India - Central Asia dialogue started at the foreign minister level.
Jan 2022: India - Central Asia Summit was organized for the first time.
Under it, it has been agreed to hold such summits once every two years.
India - Central Asia secretariat is being built in New Delhi and India- Central Asia parliamentary forum is also to be established to enable robust deliberations amongst the parliamentarians of India-Central Asia.
Thus, there is growing convergences and consolidation of India- Central Asia ties.
Note: India- Central Asia dialogue - Three such dialogues have been held. In the 3rd dialogue in Dec 2021, they agreed to cooperate on the 4C's namely connectivity, culture, commerce, and capacity building.
Areas of cooperation (10:23 am):
Connectivity:
International North-South Transport Corridor: Mumbai Port - Bandar Abbas Port (Iran) - Via Caspian Sea to Moscow and St Petersberg (Russia)
TAPI pipeline: This would carry natural gas from Galkgynsh of Turkmenistan via Afghanistan (Herat and Kandahar), Pakistan (Quetta and Multan) to Fazilika (Border town in Punjab, India).
Ashgabat Agreement:
The aim is to connect the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf.
Founding members: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Oman.
Qatar was also a founding member but it has withdrawn its membership now.
2016: Kazakhstan and Pakistan have joined
2018: India became a full member.
India - Iran - Uzbekistan trilateral formed in Dec 2020.
Under it, they want to develop a transportation corridor around the Chabahar port.
Security:
On Afghanistan: UNSC 2593, narco-terrorism.
Both India and CARs emphasize the need to strengthen UN-led global cooperation to counter terrorism.
Energy:
While Central Asia is richly endowed with energy resources such as coal, oil, natural gas, Uranium reserves, and HEP (Hydroelectric power) etc, India is a net importer of energy whose energy needs are bound to grow.
Thus there is considerable scope for energy cooperation.
The Indian initiative of 'One Sun, One World, One Grid' that aims to promote grid connectivity to harness solar energy has elicited a lot of interest from the CARs.
Health:
India's vaccine diplomacy.
India has proposed the 'One Earth, One Health' initiative under the India - Central Asia relation.
Challanges (10:59 am):
Low volumes of trade:
Reason:
Lack of overland connectivity with landlocked Central Asia.
The shortest route connecting India and Central Asia passes through hostile Pakistan and unstable Afganistan.
India has traded with CARs via China.
Solutions:
Alternative routes of connectivity need to be promoted such as the development of Chabahar port, INSTC corridor, etc.
China in Central Asia:
Evidences:
All CARs support China's BRI.
China is the leading trade partner and investor in the region.
Chinese investment have surpassed that of Russia for China to emerge as the leading trade partner of CARs.
20% of China's energy needs is met by Central Asia.
A network of petroleum pipelines running from west to east traversed Central Asia carrying oil and natural gas to China.
China shares a long border with three of the five CARs.
Institutionalization of their ties:
The C + C5 foreign ministers meeting mechanism was established in 2020.
In their last such meetings, they announced the building of a China-Central Asia Community with a shared future.
The C + C5 summit was organized in 2022 and in 2023 in Xian, China resulting in the Xian declaration.
They have agreed to organize such summits once in two years.
They have declared their ties to be closely interdependent like lips and teeth and they share their joys and sorrows.
Why it is a matter of concern to India?
India fears complete encirclement by China.
China is already present in the Indian Ocean region.
Challenges in China - Central Asia relations:
Adverse balance of trade for CARs.
Extractive nature of Chinese investments with the associated concern of ecological damage.
Persecution of the Kazakhs and the Kyrgyz minorities along with Uighurs in China's Xinjiang province.

SCO (11:27 am):

SCO - Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
It traces its origin to 'Shanghai 5' which was formed in 1996.
Shanghai 5 : China + Russia + Kazakhstan + Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan
2001: Uzbekistan became a member and therefore the name was changed to SCO.
2017: India and Pakistan became full members.
2023: Iran joined as a full member.
(Turkmenistan is not a member).
Aim: To fight the triple evils of separatism, extremism, and terrorism.
Two permanent bodies of SCO:
SCO Secretariat: It is based in Beijing.
RATS: Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
Principles of cooperation:
The principles of cooperation under SCO is referred to as the Shanghai Spirit.
Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Non-interference in each other's internal affairs.
Cultural cooperation.
Principles of non-alignment.
West considers SCO as anti anti-West and anti-NATO organization.
Reasons:
The aim of SCO is to create, they believe an alternative economic and political order in Central Asia which would undo the Western initiatives in Central Asia.
Membership of Russia, and China, and the inclusion of Iran recently further augments the anti-West image.
Belarus has submitted its application for admission as a full member.
(Observer countries: Belarus, Afghanistan, and Mongolia).
Therefore west is critical of India's membership of SCO.
However, India justifies its membership on the principle of non-alignment mentioned under the Shanghai spirit ie though India is a member of SCO, it is not aligned with the world view of Russia or China.
Regional profile of SCO:
It represents 1/3rd of the global GDP, 1/5th of the global trade, 1/5th of the global oil resources, and 1/4th of the global gas reserves.
It comprises 4 of 9 nuclear weapons states.
It comprises 2 of the P5 countries.
(Importance of SCO: Same as that of Central Asia.)
Challenges faced by India in SCO:
It is under the leadership of China and Russia.
Thus India has to accept its role as a secondary power with which India is uncomfortable.
All countries of SCO except India support BRI.
Developing Russia-China-Pakistan axis: The growing Russia-China closeness aggravates India's concerns of the China-Pakistan axis.
Growing anti-west image of SCO: The admission of Iran in the 2023 India-hosted SCO summit and the prospective membership of Belarus augments bolsters the anti-west image of SCO.
Cooperation in RATS and on Terrorism:
Though India was motivated to pursue the membership of SCO for the scope of cooperation against terrorism through the platform of RATS, it has found it ineffective.
Reasons:
India defines terrorism differently than SCO -
India suffers from cross-border sponsored terrorism while RATS defines as homegrown groups targetting the established political regime.
RATS gathers intelligence on terrorist entities such as ETIM (East Turkistan Islamic Movement), and others based in Central Asia primarily.
But India is concerned with terrorist groups such as LET, JEM (Jaish - E- Mohammad), Islamic State Khorasan, etc.
India's growing p'ship with the West: India's membership of QUAD, Next Generation P'ship with USA, etc complicates India's relationship with China, Russia, and Iran.

TOPIC FOR THE NEXT CLASS: India - Russia relations.