India's Diplomatic Engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan

India has initiated high-level engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan amidst changing regional geopolitics, focusing on securing national and security interests without officially recognizing the Taliban government.

Key Factors Influencing India's Move

• Geopolitical Changes:
  • Pakistan, a former ally of the Taliban, has become an adversary to India.
  • Iran is preoccupied with internal and regional challenges, reducing its influence over the Taliban.
  • Russia is engaged in the Ukraine war and seeks Taliban cooperation against terrorism, shifting its focus away from opposing the Taliban.
  • China is increasing its influence in Afghanistan, potentially utilizing Taliban resources for its Belt and Road initiative.
  • Anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House prompts India to solidify its position.

Security Concerns

India's primary concern is ensuring that no anti-Indian terrorist groups operate from Afghanistan. The Taliban has provided assurances to secure Indian interests and facilities, including fighting the Islamic State Khorasan Province.

India's Diplomatic Efforts and Engagements

• Initial Engagement:
  • In August 2021, India began engagement with the Taliban following the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani government.
  • India's ambassador in Qatar met with representatives from the Taliban's Doha office.
• Continued Dialogue:
  • Indian officials, including J P Singh, have engaged with Taliban leaders to maintain dialogue.
  • A technical team was sent to the Indian embassy in Kabul to continue engagement.

Regional Dynamics

• Iran's Challenges:
  • Iran faces internal issues following attacks from Israel and the loss of regional proxies.
  • Despite opposition to Taliban policies, Iran acknowledges the regime's reality.
• Russia's Stance:
  • Russia views the Taliban as an ally against terrorism, shifting its previous opposition.
  • The Russian parliament considers removing the Taliban from its banned organizations list.
• China's Inroads:
  • China establishes diplomatic ties with the Taliban, focusing on Afghanistan's resources.
  • Beijing supports urban development projects in Kabul and calls for unfreezing Afghan assets.
• Pakistan's Strained Relations:
  • Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban becomes strained due to conflicts like the airstrikes in the Paktika province.
  • India condemns Pakistani actions against Afghan civilians.

India's Strategic Interests

India focuses on maintaining its investment and humanitarian projects in Afghanistan, valued at approximately USD 3 billion over the past 20 years. The Taliban appreciates India's developmental efforts, seeking continued engagement in humanitarian support and infrastructure development.

Uttarakhand High Court on Unregulated Soapstone Mining

The Uttarakhand High Court has raised concerns over unregulated soapstone mining in Bageshwar district. A news article had highlighted the risks such mining poses to local communities, prompting the court to investigate the matter.

Key Findings

• The court’s investigation revealed alarming findings regarding the environmental and cultural impacts of soapstone mining in Bageshwar.
• Soapstone, a metamorphic rock primarily composed of talc, is significantly mined in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, with the latter holding 25% of India's reserves.

Environmental Concerns

• Land subsidence, intensified by mining activities, is a pressing issue in Uttarakhand, with Bageshwar being notably vulnerable.
• The lack of structural stability in mined slopes has increased landslide risks, threatening local settlements.
• Absence of green belts, retaining walls, and safety protocols exacerbates erosion and pollution.

Cultural Concerns

• Traditional structures like Kumaoni Bakhli are damaged due to subsidence, undermining their historical resilience.
• Cultural sites such as the Kalika Temple are also affected, with visible structural damage due to land shifts.

Administrative Complicity

• The report criticizes the administrative bodies for their role in the mining issues, highlighting undefined policies on semi-mechanised mining.
• Local officials allegedly suppressed community voices and facilitated illegal mining practices.

The court will continue deliberations on this matter with the next hearing scheduled.

India-Maldives Defence Cooperation

India and the Maldives are working to restore and deepen defence ties following a period of strained relations. The recent meeting between Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Maldivian Defence Minister Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon in New Delhi marks a significant step in this direction.

Key Discussion Points

• Defence Equipment Handover:
  • India handed over defence equipment and stores, including utility vehicles and berthing equipment worth Rs 35 crore, at the request of the Maldives.
• Aviation Platforms:
  • Discussions included extending the lease of two Advanced Light Helicopters used for medical evacuation.
• Maritime Security:
  • Talks on the frequent docking of foreign vessels, particularly Chinese, in Maldivian maritime territory.
  • Emphasis on real-time information-sharing for maritime security.
• Ekatha Harbour Project:
  • India urged the Maldives to advance the 'Ekatha' harbour project at Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) atoll, a major grant-in-aid project to enhance naval capabilities.

Statements and Commitments

• Confidence Building Measure: The meeting is seen as a step to build confidence and enhance defence cooperation.
• India's Support: Rajnath Singh reaffirmed India's commitment to supporting the Maldives' defence preparedness through capability enhancement and the provisioning of defence platforms.
• Mutual Benefits: The bilateral defence ties aim to benefit both countries and the Indian Ocean region.

The joint statement following President Mohamed Muizzu's visit highlighted India's role as a trusted partner and agreed upon training and capacity-building initiatives for the Maldives National Defence Force.

Economic Growth Overview

The National Statistics Office (NSO) released the first advance estimates for India's GDP growth, indicating a sharp slowdown to 6.4% in FY25 from 8.2% in FY24. Nominal GDP growth remains stable at 9.7%, slightly higher than FY24's 9.6%.

Fiscal Implications and Government Strategy

• The government aims to hit a fiscal deficit target of 4.9% of GDP, aided by buoyant revenue collections and weaker capital expenditure.

Supply and Demand-Side Metrics

• The Gross Value Added (GVA) metric, a supply-side estimate, is more reliable than the GDP measurement for India.
• Both GDP and GVA grew by 6.4% in FY25, lower than the economy's potential growth.

Historical Context and Growth Drivers

• Pre-Covid, GDP and GVA averaged 6.7% and 6.4% respectively from FY16 to FY20.
• New growth drivers include services exports and improved banking and corporate balance sheets, although government debt and household leverage have increased.

Current and Projected Performance

• Growth is expected to strengthen in H2 FY25 to 6.6% for GVA and 6.7% for GDP.
• NSO's estimates are based on data from the first eight months of FY25 and are subject to revision.

Sectoral Performance

• Stronger growth is anticipated in agriculture, with GVA growth accelerating to 4.5% in H2 from 2.7% in H1.
• Private final consumption expenditure is expected to grow by 7.3% in FY25, compared to 4% in FY24.
• The construction sector continues to show robust growth at 8.6%, outperforming pre-Covid levels.

Clinical Trials and Regulatory Framework in India

The Supreme Court of India is examining the regulations surrounding clinical trials, especially those conducted by multinational pharmaceutical companies in poorer countries.

Key Points

• Supreme Court Involvement: The court allowed a petitioner to submit objections to the existing rules concerning clinical trials. 
• Regulations Overview:
  • In 2019, the Indian government framed new rules for drugs and clinical trials.
  • Amendments to these rules were notified in 2024 to improve patient safety and align with global standards.
• Concerns Raised by NGO:
  • Swasthya Adhikar Manch, an NGO, filed a PIL in 2012, highlighting the misuse of Indian citizens in clinical drug trials conducted by multinational firms.
  • Allegations include exploitation of poor citizens as "guinea pigs" without adequate compensation.
• Legal Proceedings:
  • The court granted four weeks for objections to be filed against the existing rules.
  • The Centre's additional solicitor general argued that the PILs had become irrelevant due to the 2019 and 2024 rule updates.
• Historical Context:
  • In 2013, the Supreme Court found the existing norms "deficient" and pushed for the introduction of new protective rules.

Conclusion

The Supreme Court's intervention aims to ensure that clinical trials in India prioritize the welfare of Indian citizens and adhere to stringent safety protocols, rather than merely serving the interests of multinational companies.

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Canadian Political Crisis: Trudeau's Resignation and Its Repercussions

Resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Political Turmoil

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on December 16, signaling a significant shift in Canadian politics as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's position weakened. Trudeau faced immense pressure, not just from the opposition but within his party as well, amidst a paralyzed parliament, declining popularity due to economic issues, and public disapproval of immigration policies.

Challenges from the Opposition and External Pressures

• The opposition Conservative party gained a substantial lead over the Liberals, with some polls indicating a 20% advantage.
• US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports unless Canada halted immigrant and drug flows to the US.
• Trudeau's lack of response to Trump's derisive comments about Canadian sovereignty further weakened his position.

Trudeau's Resignation and Leadership Succession

On January 6, under mounting pressure, Trudeau announced his resignation, stating he would remain in office until a new leader was elected by his party. The Liberal Party now faces the task of electing a successor, with potential candidates including:

• Chrystia Freeland
• Foreign Minister Melanie Joly
• Transport Minister Anita Anand
• Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc
• Former Central Banker Mark Carney

Freeland is currently seen as a strong contender, but the party must choose a leader quickly to face the formidable challenge from the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre.

Impact on Canada-India Relations

Trudeau's tenure saw strained relations with India, exacerbated by his handling of the Hardeep Singh Nijjar case. His comments in the Canadian Parliament regarding India's alleged involvement without conclusive evidence led to diplomatic tensions.

• India dismissed Canada's accusations and requested a reduction in Canadian diplomatic presence; 41 diplomats were recalled in October 2023.
• Trudeau's approach, appealing to domestic pro-Khalistan supporters, was criticized for ignoring Indian concerns about criminals and separatists operating on Canadian soil.

Future Prospects and Diplomatic Challenges

Trudeau's successors will inherit a challenging political landscape, with the task of mending relations with India while contending with domestic issues and pressures from the US. The Nijjar case is expected to continue influencing bilateral ties, overshadowing potential improvements.

Although India has a significant diaspora in Canada, bilateral relations have not been a priority for India due to past grievances, including the handling of the Kanishka bombing and visa issues.

India hopes Trudeau's successors will reverse the diplomatic damage, although domestic priorities and Trump-related challenges may impede progress. ``` 

RBI's Warning and Debt Management Strategies

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report, highlighted the risk of consumer credit stress potentially affecting secured loans. It was noted that many individuals carrying unsecured credit card and personal loans also have secured loans like home or vehicle loans, which could be classified as non-performing if defaults occur.

Strategies for Reducing Debt Burden

• Merge Multiple Loans
  • Consolidate various loans into one with a lower interest rate.
  • A top-up loan on a home loan can help pay off high-interest credit card dues and personal loans.
  • Interest rates: 
    • Credit card dues: 36–42%
    • Personal loans: 10–31%
    • Top-up home loans: Slightly higher than home loans by 0.5-1 percentage point.
  • Other consolidation options: Loans against securities/property.
  • Debt consolidation loans: 
    • Interest rate: 12–14% depending on credit score and tenure.
    • Restrictions: Often restricted to repaying existing loans with no further borrowing allowed until repayment.
• Pay Highest-Cost Debt First (Avalanche Method)
  • Prioritize high-interest loans like credit card dues.
  • Pay minimum on all loans to avoid default and use surplus to clear high-cost loans.
• Pay Smallest Loan First (Debt Snowball Method)
  • Focus on clearing the smallest loan for a psychological victory.
  • Frees up cash to tackle larger, higher-cost loans.

Key Points to Remember

• Avoid further borrowing and EMI-based purchases.
• Be cautious of high interest rates and penalty charges from defaults.
• Avoid risky investments like equities or cryptocurrencies for debt resolution.
• Consider asset monetization like gold or mutual funds if default is imminent.
• Maintain a good credit score for future borrowing.
• Ensure EMIs do not exceed 30-40% of take-home salary.
• Build a contingency fund equal to at least six months’ expenses.

Budgeting Tips for Debt Management

• Create and strictly adhere to a budget.
• Evaluate all income sources including salary, incentives, and rental income.
• Prioritize paying fixed costs like EMIs, utilities, and school fees first.
• Plan shopping trips with a list to avoid impulse purchases.
• Cut down on non-essential spending such as entertainment and dining out.

Central Information Commission's Ruling on High Courts under RTI Act

The Central Information Commission (CIC) has issued a pivotal order asserting that all High Courts, as public authorities under the Right to Information Act, 2005, fall within its jurisdiction rather than the State Information Commissions.

Background and Context

• A petitioner sought to inspect a writ petition file under Section 2(j) of the RTI Act.
• Unsatisfied with the response from the Chief Public Information Officer (CPIO) of the Madras High Court, the petitioner approached the CIC.

Arguments and Authority

• The CPIO contended that documents or certified copies related to judicial cases could be accessed under Order XII Rule 3 of the Madras High Court Appellate Side Rules, 1965.
• The CPIO referenced a Supreme Court decision in a related case between the CIC and the High Court of Gujarat.

Jurisdiction Issue

• The CPIO claimed that the CIC lacked jurisdiction and the appeal should have been directed to the Tamil Nadu State Information Commission.
• Chief Information Commissioner Heeralal Samariya emphasized that the RTI Act establishes separate and distinct jurisdictions for the Central and State Information Commissions.

Constitutional Provisions

• The constitution and organization of High Courts fall under the legislative purview of Parliament as per Union List-Entry 78 in Schedule VII of the Indian Constitution.
• Under Article 231, Parliament may establish a common High Court for multiple States or Union Territories.

Conclusion

• All High Courts, being public authorities under the RTI Act, are subject to the jurisdiction of the CIC.
• No malafide intentions were found in the actions of the CPIO, thus no further action was deemed necessary by Mr. Samariya.

India's Potential in AI Development

During a discussion in India, Microsoft Chairman and CEO, Satya Nadella, emphasized India's capacity to develop cost-efficient, homegrown AI models despite high capital requirements.

Strategic AI Development

• Nadella proposed that India could redefine its mission to achieve in $1 billion what previously required $10 billion, suggesting a focus on cost-efficiency.
• Highlighted the importance of India making smart strategic choices in AI development.

Mathematical talent and AI Efficiency

• India has the mathematical talent necessary to develop the next computational efficiency that surpasses current transformer architectures.
• AI can increase operational efficiency by 10-15% annually, leading to a potential 100% improvement over 5-6 years.

AI's Impact and Responsibilities

• Thinking with AI, but working with colleagues, will be the “new workflow”, and people can build a “swarm of agents” to help them.
• Nadella stressed the need for balance between labor and capital returns, a decision influenced by policy and politics.
• AI should not have negative unintended consequences that outweigh its benefits.

Government's Role and Initiatives

• Jitin Prasada, Union Minister of State for IT, emphasized that AI benefits should reach grassroots levels and transform village life.
• India is poised to be both the use case and talent capital for AI.
• The government may introduce new laws if existing ones under the IT Act prove insufficient to tackle AI harms.

Collaborations and Future Outlook

• Nadella announced a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Microsoft and India AI to advance AI and emerging technologies.
• Focus on making AI beneficial for Indian languages and industries.
• Microsoft is committed to leveraging AI for innovation, enhanced productivity, and fostering inclusive growth across India.

Top Cities for Women in India Report

Bengaluru emerged as the top city for women in India, surpassing Chennai, according to the third edition of the Top Cities for Women in India’ (TCWI) report by The Avtar Group.

Top 10 Cities for Women

• Bengaluru
• Chennai
• Mumbai
• Hyderabad
• Pune
• Kolkata
• Ahmedabad
• Delhi
• Gurugram
• Coimbatore

Sixteen cities from South India ranked among the top 25, highlighting the region's gender inclusivity.

Study Overview

• A total of 120 cities across India were assessed.
• Rankings were based on the City Inclusion Score (CIS).
  • CIS was derived from three pillars:
    • Social Inclusion Score (SIS) 
    • Industrial Inclusion Score (IIS)
    • Citizen Experience Score (CES)

Details of Inclusion Scores

• Social Inclusion Score: Comprises city liveability, safety, women’s employment representation, and empowerment.
• Industrial Inclusion Score: Assesses the inclusivity of organisations towards women across industries.
• Citizen Experience Score: Women's assessment based on six pillars:
  • Skilling and employment 
  • Caregiving support 
  • Transport and accommodation infrastructure 
  • Quality of life 
  • Efficiency of government bodies 
  • Safety

According to Saundarya Rajesh, founder-president of Avtar Group, achieving the vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047 requires gender-inclusive cities to optimize women's potential.

Future of Jobs in India by 2030

According to 'Future of Jobs 2025' report by the World Economic Forum (WEF), several factors will influence the future of jobs in India:

• Increased Digital Access
• Geopolitical Tensions
• Climate-Mitigation Efforts

These elements will be pivotal in shaping employment and skills demand in the coming years.

Key Trends and Investments

Indian companies are heavily investing in new technologies:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Robotics
• Autonomous Systems

As a result, job roles such as Big Data specialists, AI and machine learning experts, and security management professionals are projected to grow rapidly.

Shift in Hiring Practices

To meet talent needs, Indian organizations are:

• Hiring from diverse talent pools.
• Adopting skills-based hiring approaches by removing degree requirements.

AI Adoption and Training

Highlights from the report include:

• 96% of Indian organizations are implementing AI programs, compared to 88% globally.
• India and the US lead in generative AI training enrollments on platforms like Coursera.

Corporate sponsorship greatly enhances GenAI training uptake.

Technological Transformation

Indian employers expect significant shifts in operations with:

• 35% prioritizing semiconductors and computing technologies.
• 21% focusing on quantum and encryption technologies.

Skill Evolution by 2030

By 2030, it is anticipated that:

• 38% of workers' core skills in India will evolve.
• This is slightly lower than the global forecast of 39%.

AI-Driven Automation and Digitization in India

AI-driven automation and digitization are providing intangible benefits to organizations in India by facilitating zero-touch processes, which reduce friction across various industries.

Zero-Touch Operations

• These operations run end-to-end with minimal or no human intervention through automation, AI, and integrated digital systems.
• Significant improvements have been noted in several sectors like finance, IT, healthcare, manufacturing, and citizen services.
• A Deloitte study highlights productivity gains and cost savings of 65% in the BPM/ITeS industry due to low-touch operations.
  • Customer satisfaction improved by 25% and revenue grew by 10% with the deployment of AI chatbots and voice bots.

India's Digital Public Infrastructure

• UPI and Digi Yatra: Successful examples of zero-touch operations.
  • UPI processed ₹23.49 lakh crores across 16.58 billion transactions in October 2024, showing a 45% annual growth.
  • Digi Yatra app simplifies air travel by enabling contactless and paperless airport entry, saving resources and time.

Telecom Sector and eSIM

• eSIM: Gaining traction among telecom operators and IoT users for seamless connectivity.
• India's eSIM growth is slow, with only about 10% of smartphones supporting it compared to 70% in the US.

Humanoid Technology and Robotics

• Companies like Reliance Jio and Addverb are advancing in humanoid tech, aiming to launch AI-driven humanoid robots in 2025.
• Robotics in manufacturing increases precision, efficiency, and safety, offering a strategic realignment of human labor.

Challenges for MSMEs

Despite the benefits, India's 113 million MSMEs face challenges in adopting robotics due to lack of capital and technology skills. However, long-term benefits like higher production and improved quality controls could offset initial investments.

India's Look East Policy and Odisha's Strategic Importance

External Affairs Minister Dr. S Jaishankar emphasized Odisha's pivotal role in India's Look East Policy, highlighting the state's potential in Trade, Technology, and Tourism (3Ts). He presented a compelling case for investment in Odisha at the 18th annual Pravasi Bhartiya Divas (PBD).

Key Highlights

• Trade:
  • Odisha's historical significance in trade dates back to the 'Bali Yatra', which marked its connection to Southeast Asia.
  • The state's strategic location on the eastern seaboard offers substantial potential for expanding India's trade connections globally.
  • Resources in Odisha require investments, facilities, and connectivity to add value and boost trade.
• Technology:
  • In the digital era, technology is closely associated with trust and talent.
  • Odisha's young demographic and robust educational infrastructure present significant opportunities for technological collaboration.
• Tourism:
  • Odisha holds tremendous potential in tourism, a sector known for its employment generation and multiplier effect.
  • Investing in tourism in Odisha contributes to the state's development and inclusive growth.

Global Partnerships and Growth

The Minister emphasized the importance of global partnerships for India's growth, stressing that no country can grow in isolation. He highlighted the role of Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) in fostering such collaborations, which are crucial for resource supplementation, technology infusion, and the introduction of best practices to realize India's potential.