India's Economic Growth Forecast by the World Bank

The World Bank has maintained its growth forecast for India at 6.7% for FY26, citing India as the fastest-growing major economy over the next two years.

Sectoral Growth Outlook

• Services Sector: Expected to experience sustained expansion. 
• Manufacturing Activity: Anticipated to strengthen due to government efforts to enhance logistics and improve the business environment through tax reforms. 

Global Economic Projection

• Global economy is projected to grow at 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, consistent with 2024 levels.
• Developing economies are expected to maintain a growth rate of about 4% over the next two years.

Challenges for Developing Economies

Indermit Gill, World Bank’s Chief Economist, highlighted the challenges ahead for developing economies:

• High debt, weak investment, and productivity growth.
• Rising costs of climate change.
• Need for domestic reforms to boost private investment, enhance trade relations, and optimize use of capital, talent, and energy.

India's Economic Indicators

• Private Consumption Growth: Expected to be fueled by a robust labor market, expanding credit, and declining inflation.
• Government Consumption Growth: May remain limited.
• Investment Growth: Projected to be steady with rising private investments.

Growth and Economic Challenges

India’s growth is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2024-25 from 8.2% in 2023-24 due to weaker investment and manufacturing growth. However, services and agriculture sectors show resilience.

Fiscal Policies in South Asia

• Fiscal policies are expected to be tight across South Asian countries.
• In India, fiscal deficits are likely to shrink due to increasing tax revenues.

Risks and Challenges in the South Asian Region

• Policy Uncertainty: Adverse trade policy shifts in major economies pose risks.
• Protectionist Measures: Intensification could affect exports and growth.
• Commodity Prices: Higher prices could harm growth, given the region's dependence on imports.
• Other Risks: Social unrest, tighter monetary policies, climate change disasters, and weaker growth in major economies.

Importance of Infrastructure Outlays in the Union Budget

Understanding the impact of infrastructure investments in the Union Budget necessitates grasping three key public expenditure principles:

1. Economic Impact of Infrastructure Spending

• According to government data, every Rs 1 spent on infrastructure contributes Rs 3 to the GDP.
• Conversely, Rs 1 spent on direct benefit transfers (DBT) adds only 90 paise to GDP.
• This highlights the significance of focusing on infrastructure capital expenditure to stimulate economic growth.

2. Gross Capital Formation in Infrastructure (GCFI)

• Mainstream political consensus suggests that India should aim for a GCFI of at least 7% of GDP.

3. Complementary Contributions

• Union Budget outlays for infrastructure are generally supplemented by contributions from states, private capital, and extra budgetary resources, including public sector undertakings.

The table provided quantifies the necessary outlays for India through 2029-30, predicting a Rs 13 trillion allocation for infrastructure in the 2025-26 Budget, targeting an overall spend of Rs 26 trillion to meet the 7% GDP objective.

Current Economic Concerns

• The RBI’s Systemic Risk Survey indicates low expectations for private capital expenditure revival due to geopolitical tensions, commodity price risks, and other factors.
• GDP estimates for Q2 of FY25 cast doubt on economic growth stability, with reduced government capital expenditure cited as a contributing factor.
• CMIE data shows a 22.1% decline in new project commencements and notable reductions in project completions and capital expenditure, both in government and private sectors.

Future Strategies and Recommendations

• Government may consider an 18% increase in infrastructure allocations to Rs 13 trillion.
• For a more aggressive economic boost, a Rs 15 trillion allocation might be pursued, potentially relaxing the fiscal deficit target by 0.5% for asset creation and economic revival.
• Additional funding could enhance social infrastructure sectors like health and education.

The content reflects the personal views of the author, an infrastructure sector expert and chairman of the CII’s National Council on Infrastructure.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD): An Overview

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), established in 1875, has evolved significantly and symbolizes India's scientific advancement in weather forecasting. With its 150th anniversary, its role in predicting short- and long-term weather patterns and providing early warnings for adverse events is crucial across various sectors.

Role and Impact of IMD

• Weather forecasting is vital in sectors such as: 
  • Agriculture
  • Transport (road, rail, air)
  • Energy management from power plants
  • Tourism
• IMD provides critical data like: 
  • Wind speed and direction
  • Global horizontal irradiance forecasts
  • Historical temperature data for site selection, especially for solar and wind power plants

Achievements in Forecasting

• Accuracy in cyclone forecasts improved from 20% in the early 2000s to over 80% by 2020, particularly in predicting landfall points and timing.
• Probabilistic forecasts offer a lead time of four to five days for extreme weather events, enhancing disaster management.
• Technological advancements include: 
  • Automatic weather stations and rain gauge instrumentation
  • Doppler radars
  • Observatories

Vision for the Future

• The IMD Vision Document 2047 aims for a weather-ready and climate-smart nation, targeting goals like: 
  • 100% detection of severe weather at village and household levels
  • Zero error in forecasts up to three days
  • 90% accuracy for five-day forecasts
  • 80% accuracy for seven-day forecasts
  • 70% accuracy for ten-day forecasts
• Mission Mausam aims to enhance: 
  • Weather surveillance and modeling
  • Forecasting and weather modification
  • Infrastructure with a 2,000 crore budget over two years
  • Installation of Doppler weather-radars, radiometers, wind profilers, and cloud chambers

Challenges

• Deterministic forecasts for long-term monsoon patterns and extreme rainfall events.
• Climate change and urbanization present new vulnerabilities requiring innovative solutions.

Key Government Initiatives in January 2025

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced and launched several transformative initiatives, demonstrating a vision for a progressive and self-reliant India. These initiatives span across various sectors, setting a dynamic tone for the year 2025.

SVAMITVA Scheme

• Distribution of over 6.5 million property cards to property owners in 50,000 villages.
• Aim: To provide ownership rights and enhance rural infrastructure.

8th Pay Commission and Space Initiatives

• Approval for the establishment of the 8th Pay Commission.
• ISRO's success with the Space Docking Experiment (SpaDeX).
• Approval for a third launch pad at Sriharikota with an investment of Rs 3,984 crore.

Infrastructure and Welfare Programs

• Extension of a special package for Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) to keep fertiliser prices affordable.
• Distribution of newly constructed flats under the In-Situ Slum Rehabilitation Project in Delhi.
• Foundation laying for educational projects worth over Rs 600 crore.

Rural Development and Economic Initiatives

• Grameen Bharat Mahotsav to promote GI-certified village products.
• Meeting with global tech leaders to foster indigenous innovation, including a $3 billion AI investment by Microsoft.
• Infrastructure advancements including the Namo Bharat Train Corridor and rail projects in several states.

Healthcare and Science Projects

• Launch of the Genome India Project to map genetic diversity.

Youth and Cultural Engagement

• Participation in the Viksit Bharat Young Leaders Dialogue.
• Addressed the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas convention.

Defence and Security Enhancements

• Inauguration of the Sonamarg Tunnel for improved connectivity and national security.
• Commissioning of advanced naval combatants to bolster India's maritime strength.

Prime Minister Modi emphasized the role of these initiatives in shaping a developed India and highlighted the importance of each citizen in building a prosperous future.

Docking in Space Missions

Docking is a vital technology for assembling spacefaring components into larger modules in space, enabling the launch of spacecraft heavier than the capacity of the heaviest rockets. It serves as a gateway for advanced interplanetary missions, exemplified by missions like the Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return mission.

Significance and Applications of Docking

• Interplanetary Missions: Docking facilitates the assembly of modules for missions that exceed individual rocket capabilities.
• Long-Duration Spaceflight: Docking technology is crucial for long-term missions, such as those to Mars or space mining operations.
• Cost Considerations: The need to reduce costs for extended missions increases the appeal of docking for satellite servicing and orbital resupply.

ISRO's Initiatives

• SpaDeX Satellites: ISRO equipped these satellites with ample fuel to conduct multiple docking attempts and collected continuous data.
• Bharatiya Antariksh Station (BAS): ISRO plans to launch this space station later in the decade.

Challenges and Expectations

• Coherent Vision: It is crucial for ISRO to articulate the expected utility of BAS to align with the broader Indian space programme and international standards.
• Leadership: With V. Narayanan as the new chairman, ISRO is entering a new operational phase and needs to address these challenges effectively.

Macroeconomic Policymaking Challenges in India (2025)

Macroeconomic policymaking in India faces significant challenges due to external economic pressures and internal growth dynamics. The complex global and domestic economic landscape requires India to navigate carefully to sustain growth and stability.

External Economic Pressures

• American Exceptionalism:
  • Resilient growth in the US has tightened global financial conditions.
  • US Federal Reserve's reduced rate cuts expectations have led to increased bond yields and a strong dollar.
  • These changes put pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee.
• Trump 2.0 Risks:
  • US tariffs increase global uncertainties, depressing capex and growth.
  • Potential redirection of Chinese excess capacity to countries like India.
  • Trade wars could result in weaker global growth but a stronger US economy.

Domestic Growth Dynamics

• Slowing Growth Momentum:
  • Urban consumption has diminished as pandemic savings exhaust and lending tightens.
  • Rural consumption is rising but at a gradual pace.
  • Private investment is cautious, awaiting better demand visibility.

Policy Response and Strategy

Monetary Policy

• Interest Rate Strategy:
  • Avoid using interest rates solely to defend the rupee.
  • Focus on domestic growth and inflation dynamics.
  • Use FX reserves to manage exchange rate adjustments.
• Inflation Management:
  • Food prices show relief, aiding inflation control.
  • Core inflation remains moderate, indicating economic slack.

Fiscal Policy

• Debt and Deficit Management:
  • Public debt/GDP is rising due to slow GDP growth.
  • Gradual fiscal consolidation is essential to avoid pro-cyclicality.

Opportunities and Reforms

Structural Reforms

• Labour-Intensive Growth:
  • Focus on accelerating growth through structural reforms.
  • Enhance the economy's external attractiveness amid global trade shifts.

Strategic Positioning

• US-China Trade War:
  • Position India as an attractive alternative for global firms.
  • Utilize the current government's political capital to push for reforms.

Overall, India must balance domestic policy adjustments with global economic dynamics, seizing the opportunity for reforms and growth amidst external challenges.

India's Response to Gaza Ceasefire Agreement

India has expressed approval of the agreement for the release of hostages and the ceasefire in Gaza aimed at ending the 15-month conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Key Details of the Agreement

• The agreement includes a phased accord outlining a six-week initial ceasefire.
• Hostages held by Hamas in Gaza will be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
• Israeli forces are to gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip during the ceasefire.
• According to Gaza authorities, the conflict has resulted in 46,000 fatalities.

India's Stance

• India has consistently advocated for the release of hostages, a ceasefire, and a return to dialogue and diplomacy.
• New Delhi condemned the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas and emphasized the need for humanitarian aid for Gaza civilians.
• India is cautiously optimistic about the deal's sustainability, considering Israel's upper hand after the elimination of Hamas' top leadership.

International Involvement

• The ceasefire deal was mediated with efforts from Qatari negotiators to ensure implementation.
• US President Joe Biden highlighted that the deal would enhance humanitarian assistance and reunite hostages with their families.
• The deal involved significant diplomatic efforts from the outgoing Biden administration.

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Earthquakes: Key Concepts and Current Events

Earthquakes are critical geophysical phenomena that are fundamental to the UPSC CSE syllabus, encompassing disaster management and geography, including plate tectonics and seismic zones. They emphasize preparedness, mitigation strategies, and India’s seismic vulnerability.

Recent Events

• An earthquake with a magnitude of approximately 7 struck Tibet on January 7, resulting in around 100 fatalities and damage to about 1,000 houses.
• The epicenter was located 75 kilometers northeast of Mount Everest, near Nepal, yet there was no major damage reported in Nepal.
• This event was the most powerful in the area since the devastating April 2015 Nepal earthquake that caused approximately 10,000 deaths.

Causes and Mechanics of Earthquakes

• Earthquakes occur due to intense ground shaking caused by movements beneath the Earth's surface when two blocks of the Earth suddenly slip past one another, releasing stored 'elastic strain' energy as seismic waves.
• The Earth's crust is divided into tectonic plates, whose boundaries consist of faults. As these plates move, they may stick at the edges, and when they finally slip, an earthquake occurs.
• The location below the Earth's surface where an earthquake starts is called the hypocenter, while the point directly above it on the surface is the epicenter.

Prediction of Earthquakes

Currently, accurate prediction of earthquakes is not possible. It requires a precursory signal from within the Earth indicating a forthcoming major quake, which has yet to be detected by existing technology.

Seismic Activity in the Himalayan Zone

• The Himalayas were formed by the collision of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates, which continue to converge at a rate of 40-50 mm/year.
• The region has experienced at least five earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7 in the Hindu Kush since 1950, due to complex tectonic interactions.

Most Earthquake-Prone Countries

• Countries like China and Indonesia are highly prone to earthquakes, with Indonesia experiencing the most seismic events (2,212 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or more).
• According to NOAA, China has faced 186 major earthquakes between 1990 and 2024, followed by Indonesia with 166, and Iran with 109.

India's Seismic Vulnerability

• Ranked as the seventh most earthquake-prone country globally, India has experienced 58 significant earthquakes.
• Approximately 59% of India’s land area is susceptible to moderate or severe seismic events.

Theory of Plate Tectonics

The Earth's surface is divided into major and minor tectonic plates that move a few centimeters annually, leading to earthquakes through collisions and separations.

Types of Seismic Waves

• Body Waves: Travel through the Earth's interior and include Primary ('P') waves, which are compressional and can travel through solids, liquids, and gases, and Secondary ('S') waves, which are shear waves and do not travel through liquids or gases.
• Surface Waves: Confined near the Earth's surface, including Love waves (shear waves) and Rayleigh waves, which resemble ocean wave motions.

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Chief Justice of India on Corruption

Key Highlights from the Lokpal Day 2025 Program

• Corruption's Reach:
  • Corruption extends beyond large scams, affecting socially and economically disadvantaged groups.
  • Example: Examination paper leaks undermine student aspirations and public education.
  • Each corrupt act diminishes public trust.
• Government Contracts and State Largesse:
  • Contracts often awarded to well-connected individuals, termed as illegal distribution of State largesse.
  • Examples: BPL cards and public housing misallocated to elites instead of those in genuine need.
  • Such malpractices undermine constitutional equality principles.
• Role and Challenges of Lokpal:
  • Mere establishment of Lokpal isn't enough; requires synergy with Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) and other agencies.
  • Importance of seamless coordination for evidence gathering and investigations.
• Insights from Other Speakers:
  • Justice (retd) A.M. Khanwilkar emphasized that the Lokpal Act is vital for investigating high-level corruption.
  • Noted challenges: Evolving corruption models and stronger nexus among politicians, business, and bureaucracy.
  • Need for vigilant, timely follow-ups and cleaning mechanisms.

Notable Personalities and the Historical Context

• Social activist Anna Hazare, Justice (retd) N. Santosh Hegde, and Attorney General R. Venkataramani were felicitated.
• The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, came into effect on January 16, 2014.

RBI Liberalizes Norms for Cross-Border Transactions

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced new liberalized norms on January 16, 2025, aimed at promoting the use of the Indian Rupee and other local currencies for settling cross-border transactions. This move comes amidst the depreciation of the domestic currency, which recently hit a record low of 86.70 per USD.

Key Initiatives

• Memorandum of Understanding (MoU): The RBI has signed MoUs with the central banks of the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and Maldives to facilitate cross-border transactions using local currencies, including the Indian Rupee.
• Special Rupee Vostro Account (SRVA): Introduced in July 2022, this arrangement has led to the opening of several SRVAs by foreign banks with Indian banks, enhancing the use of INR for trade transactions.
• Liberalized FEMA Regulations:
  • Overseas branches of Authorized Dealer banks can open INR accounts for non-residents for settling permissible transactions with Indian residents.
  • Non-residents can settle transactions with other non-residents using balances in repatriable INR accounts like SRVA and Special Non-resident Rupee accounts.
  • Balances in these accounts can also be used for foreign investment, including Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), in non-debt instruments.
• Facilitation for Indian Exporters: They can open accounts in any foreign currency overseas to settle trade transactions, receive export proceeds, and pay for imports using these proceeds.

Background

This initiative follows a review of the extant FEMA regulations of 1999 by the RBI, conducted in consultation with the central government, to promote cross-border transactions in INR and local/national currencies.

Blue Origin's New Glenn Rocket Launch

Blue Origin launched its new massive rocket, New Glenn, on its first test flight on January 16, 2025. The rocket successfully sent a prototype satellite into orbit, marking a milestone in private space exploration.

Key Highlights

• Launch Details:
  • New Glenn was launched from the historic launch pad in Florida, previously used for NASA's Mariner and Pioneer missions.
  • The rocket stands 320 feet (98 meters) tall and is equipped with seven main engines.
• Achievements:
  • Successfully reached orbit 13 minutes after launch.
  • Carried an experimental platform for hosting or deploying satellites.
• Operational Goals:
  • The test satellite was expected to remain in orbit for six hours.
  • First-stage booster retrieval attempt failed, but the primary goal was achieving orbit.

Blue Origin's Vision and Infrastructure

• Future Plans:
  • Plans for six to eight New Glenn flights this year, with the next scheduled in spring.
  • Aims to lower the cost of space access through industry collaboration.
• Infrastructure and Investment:
  • Over $1 billion invested in launching site Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.
  • Launch site is strategically located near NASA's Kennedy Space Center.

Comparative Context and Competition

• Competitive Landscape:
  • New Glenn is among other new rockets like United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, Europe’s Ariane 6, and NASA's Space Launch System (SLS).
  • SpaceX's Starship, the largest at 400 feet, is expected to make additional test flights.
• Cooperation and Competition:
  • Jeff Bezos emphasizes collaboration over competition with SpaceX.
  • NASA has planned to use different companies for lunar missions under the Artemis program.

Challenges and Adjustments

• Delays and Adjustments:
  • Launch was delayed due to ice buildup in critical plumbing.
  • NASA's Mars mission involving New Glenn was postponed.
• Future Missions:
  • Planned Mars mission with twin spacecraft named Escapade, focused on studying the Martian atmosphere.

Overall, Blue Origin's New Glenn launch signifies a significant leap in private space travel, setting the stage for future missions and collaboration in the space industry.

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in India

MDR-TB is a form of tuberculosis where the bacteria are resistant to rifampicin and isoniazid, two essential drugs in TB treatment. This form of TB carries a high risk of death, estimated at 30-40%. India has a significant burden of TB, contributing 27% of the 1,75,923 MDR-TB cases reported globally in 2023.

Challenges in Treatment

• The evolution of MDR-TB strains is often due to poor adherence to TB treatment and misuse of drugs, common in India.
• Traditional treatments for drug-resistant TB are lengthy (18 months or more) and involve toxic drugs, posing adherence challenges.
• Patients have long advocated for shorter and less toxic treatment regimens, which were often ignored by the health system.
• Side effects from treatments, such as hearing loss and depression, were often downplayed, exacerbating the stigma and discomfort for patients.

New Treatment Regimens

There is a need for shorter regimens to improve treatment completion rates and reduce economic burdens. The BPaL regimen, consisting of bedaquiline, pretonamid, and linezolid, is one such example, prescribed for 6 months.

• The Nix-TB trial in South Africa demonstrated the regimen's efficacy, and the ZeNix trial showed better tolerance with reduced linezolid doses.
• Although promising, adherence and drug-susceptibility testing are crucial for these new regimens.
• Adverse effects, such as sensory neuropathy from linezolid, need monitoring, and alternative regimens should be available.

Health System and Implementation

• Adequate training for physicians on managing these regimens is essential.
• Universal molecular diagnostics are needed to detect drug-resistant TB early.
• Effective public-private partnerships can improve access while preventing misuse of treatments.

Additional Considerations

• Shorter regimens might be costlier, but persisting with toxic alternatives is more detrimental.
• Community education and supportive services such as counseling are key to successful implementation.
• Addressing social, economic, and gender determinants is crucial for a holistic TB control approach.

Conclusion

While shorter regimens for MDR-TB are transformative, they are not sufficient alone. A broader systemic transformation addressing structural determinants is necessary for effective TB control.

Global Economic Prospects and India's Growth

The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report highlights key growth forecasts for India and the global economy, emphasizing India's position as the fastest-growing major economy.

India's Economic Growth

• Growth Projections: India is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7% in both FY26 and FY27.
• Sectoral Insights:
  • The services sector is expected to maintain robust growth.
  • Manufacturing is likely to strengthen due to improvements in logistics infrastructure and tax reforms.
• Private Consumption: Predicted to increase due to a stronger labor market, expanding credit, and declining inflation, though urban consumption has been constrained by higher inflation and slower credit growth.
• Investment Growth: Supported by rising private investment, strong corporate balance sheets, and easing financing conditions.

Global Economic Outlook

• World Economic Growth: Projected to expand by 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, mirroring the pace of 2024 due to declining inflation and interest rates.
• South Asian Region: GDP growth is expected to reach 6.2% in 2025 and 2026, driven by India’s performance.
• Developing Economies:
  • Account for 60% of global growth but face the weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000.
  • Progress in catching up with advanced economies is expected to be slower.

Trends in Global Economic Integration

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): As a share of GDP, FDI flows to developing economies have halved compared to the early 2000s.
• Trade Restrictions: New global trade restrictions in 2024 are five times the 2010-19 average.
• Long-term Growth Trends: Overall global economic growth has decreased from 5.9% in the 2000s to 3.5% in the 2020s.

Key Observations

• Since 2014, developing economies, excluding China and India, have experienced lower per capita income growth compared to wealthy economies, widening the income gap.
• According to the World Bank, the next 25 years may present more challenges for developing economies compared to the past 25 years.

Union Cabinet Approves Third Launchpad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre

The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has given the green light for the establishment of a third launchpad at the Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) in Sriharikota, Andhra Pradesh.

Key Details of the Project

• Location and Cost: The new launchpad will be constructed at the SDSC in Sriharikota, with a development budget of ₹3,984.86 crore.
• Purpose: It is intended to support Next-Generation Launch Vehicles (NGLVs) and critical future missions, including the Ganganyaan–human spaceflight programme.
• Role: The third launchpad will also serve as a standby for the second launchpad at Sriharikota, enhancing operational flexibility.

Infrastructure and Design

• The infrastructure will be designed to be universal and adaptable, accommodating both the NGLV and LVM3 vehicles with a semicryogenic stage.
• There will be a strong emphasis on industry participation, leveraging ISRO’s experience from previous launchpad projects.
• The project is targeted for completion within four years.

Key Components

• Systems: The TLP will include jet detector systems, launch towers, and lightning suppression systems.
• Facilities: Propellant storage and servicing facilities for liquid methane and cryogenic fuels will be integrated.
• Support: Advanced range systems, instrumentation, and electronic support facilities will be part of the setup.

Cervical Cancer and HPV Vaccination

January marks Cervical Cancer Awareness Month, emphasizing the importance of screening for cervical cancer, a leading cause of cancer among Indian women. The disease primarily stems from the Human Papillomavirus (HPV), responsible for 99.7% of cervical cancers globally.

HPV Vaccine: Prevention and Availability

• The HPV vaccine is the most effective preventive measure, stimulating immune responses to neutralize the virus.
• In India, the vaccine requires a prescription, despite recommendations for inclusion in the national immunization program by the National Technical Advisory Group for Immunisation (NTAGI).
• Some states like Punjab and Sikkim have incorporated the vaccine into their programs.

Vaccine Recommendations and Efficacy

• Recommended for girls aged 9–14 and children aged 12 to 13 years.
• Effective in preventing over 90% of cancers associated with HPV.
• Safe for immunocompromised individuals or those with HIV, with common side effects being mild fever and injection-site reactions.
• Approved vaccines in India include Gardasil, Cervarix, and Cervavac.

Prevalence and Incidence of Cervical Cancer

• 3rd most common cancer in India, with an incidence rate of 18.3% and mortality rate of 9.1% according to GLOBOCAN 2020.
• Highest incidence rate in Asia in Papumpare district, Arunachal Pradesh.
• Majority of cases diagnosed at advanced stages.

Challenges and Cost

• High costs and cultural perceptions impact vaccine uptake.
• Gardasil 9 costs ₹10,850 per dose; Cervavac, an Indian vaccine, costs ₹2,000 per dose.

Global Efforts and Recommendations

The World Health Organization and other global entities have committed significant funding ($600 million) to eliminate cervical cancer. Vaccination, coupled with screening and treatment, forms the path to eradication, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. 

Impact of Rupee Depreciation on India

The depreciation of the Indian rupee is a cause for concern among policymakers, despite the notion of national pride associated with a strong currency. Ideally, a weaker rupee should benefit India by enhancing its exports' competitiveness and reducing import dependence.

Economic Implications

• Exports and Imports:
  • Cheaper exports increase competitiveness in foreign and domestic markets.
  • Costlier imports theoretically reduce competition from foreign goods.
• Strategic Advantage: Several countries, notably China, have used currency undervaluation to gain a competitive edge in manufacturing.

Challenges

• Trade Deficits: Historical export pessimism and declining manufacturing have left India as a net importer, leading to significant trade deficits.
• Import Nature: High oil import costs are a major challenge, making up 20% of imports and affecting inflation and trade balance.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: The RBI can defend the rupee using reserves but at the cost of liquidity, impacting growth.

Strategies for Improvement

• Reducing Import Dependence:
  • Enhance domestic production of natural resources like oil and minerals.
  • Consider incentives similar to PLI for resources.
• Shift to Renewable Energy (RE): Reduce oil dependence by increasing RE capacity, especially in oil-intensive sectors like transportation.

Conclusion

A depreciating rupee, accompanied by strategic policies, can potentially transform India into a net exporting nation, contributing positively to its economic trajectory.

Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) Deposits

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States (US) play a significant role in the FCNR (B) deposits mobilized by Indian banks, indicating a strong Indian banking presence in the Gulf region.

Key Statistics

• As of September 2024, the UAE accounted for 43% of the FCNR (B) deposits, up from 39% in March 2020.
• The share of the US decreased from 17% to 10.6% during the same period.

Reasons for UAE's Higher Share

Soumitra Sen, country head of consumer banking at IndusInd Bank, explains that Indian banks have a higher presence in the GCC, particularly the UAE, through representative offices and offshore branches, leading to a greater share of non-resident FCNR deposits from these regions.

Comparison with Other Countries

• The UK holds a 5.5% share of FCNR (B) deposits.
• Singapore accounts for 5%.

Lower US Share Explanation

Higher interest rates and bond yields in the US provide NRIs with more lucrative investment opportunities, reducing the appeal of FCNR (B) deposits.

GCC-based NRI Client Preferences

• NRIs see safety and higher returns in India compared to their country of residence.
• FCNR inflows grew faster due to the strength of the Indian economy and banking sector.

Nature of NRI Deposits

Unlike remittances for family maintenance or non-repatriable transfers, NRI deposits serve as savings and investment instruments and are repatriable.

RBI's Strategic Move

The Reserve Bank of India recently relaxed interest caps on FCNR (B) deposits, aiming for long-term growth rather than immediate impacts amidst volatile markets.

Union Cabinet's Spectrum Refarming Approval

The Union cabinet has approved the Department of Telecommunications' (DoT) plan to refarm approximately 1100 MHz of spectrum, potentially worth ₹5 lakh crore, for future auctions to support 5G and 6G telecom services.

Key Details of the Spectrum Refarming

• The refarming includes spectrum from 10 bands, ranging from 470 MHz to 6 GHz.
• Currently, these bands are utilized by ministries like space, defense, information and broadcasting, railways, and housing and urban affairs.
• The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) will suggest the spectrum pricing.

Importance and Potential of the Spectrum Refarming

• The mid-band spectrum (1000 MHz to 6000 MHz) is crucial for 4G and 5G services.
• Officials estimate the spectrum's value based on previous auction bids to be around ₹5 lakh crore.
• The telecom industry requires about 2,000 MHz in the mid-band range in the upcoming years, while currently, only 400 MHz is available.

Industry Perspective and Future Prospects

• The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) emphasizes the potential of the available mid-band spectrum (5925-7125 MHz) for mobile telecommunications.
• The industry seeks delicensing of the 6 GHz band for Wi-Fi services.
• The DoT acknowledges the need for more airwaves in mid-band and premium lower bands to upgrade 5G and introduce 6G by 2030.

India’s Job Market and Future Skills Readiness

India has been recognized for its preparedness in recruiting for future in-demand skills, especially in areas like artificial intelligence (AI), digital technologies, and green technologies, according to the inaugural QS World Future Skills Index.

Key Findings from the QS World Future Skills Index

• The index evaluates countries based on four major indicators: 
  • Skills Fit: Evaluates how well the education system meets industry and employer needs.
  • Academic Readiness: Assesses the country's ability to deliver future industry skills.
  • Future of Work: Measures job market readiness for future in-demand skills.
  • Economic Transformation: Analyzes the economy's readiness for skills-led industrial growth.
• India ranks 25th overall among over 190 countries.
• India secures the second-highest score (99.1) in the Future of Work indicator, following the US.
• India's strong venture capital attraction indicates a resilient investment ecosystem.

Strengths and Opportunities

• India is poised to integrate AI into its workforce faster than many other nations.
• Despite existing strengths, there are areas for improvement, particularly in: 
  • Higher education systems.
  • Industry collaboration.
  • Employment market alignment.
• Indian universities show potential but need to enhance digital, AI, and green skills training.
• India scored low on the Future-Oriented Innovation and Sustainability metric, indicating a need to align with global trends in: 
  • Green technologies.
  • Sustainable infrastructure.
  • Long-term environmental strategies.

According to QS Executive Director Ashwin Fernandes, India's dynamic startup culture and young population enable the country to lead in the digital, AI, and green sectors, despite global challenges.