India's Diplomatic Engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan

India has initiated high-level engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan amidst changing regional geopolitics, focusing on securing national and security interests without officially recognizing the Taliban government.

Key Factors Influencing India's Move

• Geopolitical Changes:
  • Pakistan, a former ally of the Taliban, has become an adversary to India.
  • Iran is preoccupied with internal and regional challenges, reducing its influence over the Taliban.
  • Russia is engaged in the Ukraine war and seeks Taliban cooperation against terrorism, shifting its focus away from opposing the Taliban.
  • China is increasing its influence in Afghanistan, potentially utilizing Taliban resources for its Belt and Road initiative.
  • Anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House prompts India to solidify its position.

Security Concerns

India's primary concern is ensuring that no anti-Indian terrorist groups operate from Afghanistan. The Taliban has provided assurances to secure Indian interests and facilities, including fighting the Islamic State Khorasan Province.

India's Diplomatic Efforts and Engagements

• Initial Engagement:
  • In August 2021, India began engagement with the Taliban following the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani government.
  • India's ambassador in Qatar met with representatives from the Taliban's Doha office.
• Continued Dialogue:
  • Indian officials, including J P Singh, have engaged with Taliban leaders to maintain dialogue.
  • A technical team was sent to the Indian embassy in Kabul to continue engagement.

Regional Dynamics

• Iran's Challenges:
  • Iran faces internal issues following attacks from Israel and the loss of regional proxies.
  • Despite opposition to Taliban policies, Iran acknowledges the regime's reality.
• Russia's Stance:
  • Russia views the Taliban as an ally against terrorism, shifting its previous opposition.
  • The Russian parliament considers removing the Taliban from its banned organizations list.
• China's Inroads:
  • China establishes diplomatic ties with the Taliban, focusing on Afghanistan's resources.
  • Beijing supports urban development projects in Kabul and calls for unfreezing Afghan assets.
• Pakistan's Strained Relations:
  • Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban becomes strained due to conflicts like the airstrikes in the Paktika province.
  • India condemns Pakistani actions against Afghan civilians.

India's Strategic Interests

India focuses on maintaining its investment and humanitarian projects in Afghanistan, valued at approximately USD 3 billion over the past 20 years. The Taliban appreciates India's developmental efforts, seeking continued engagement in humanitarian support and infrastructure development.