Delimitation and Financial Devolution in India

The discourse on delimitation and financial devolution has sparked significant debate in Parliament and some State Assemblies, posing challenges to the federal structure of India.

Historical Context and Current Concerns

• The delimitation exercise from 1951-71 saw an increase in Lok Sabha seats, driven by population growth.
• The population representation per seat rose from 7.3 lakh in 1951 to 10.1 lakh in 1971, culminating in the current 543 seats.
• The seat freeze since 1971 is set to expire in 2026, causing anxiety over political representation, particularly for peninsular and northern States.

Projected Changes and Implications

• By 2026, the projected number of Lok Sabha seats could be 753, with around 20 lakh population per seat.
• Northern States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain more seats due to higher population growth rates compared to peninsular States.

Finance Commission's Role

• The 15th Finance Commission revised population-related devolution metrics, shifting from 1971 to 2011 data.
• It suggested weightage for demographic performance, increasing the population component's weight from 0.15 to 0.27.

Considerations for Future Exercises

• There is a need to go beyond population size as the sole criterion for political representation.
• Population density could be considered as an alternative measure, as seen in the northeast.
• Maintaining the status quo might require proportionate seat allocation based on an aggregate norm of population representation.
• Delimitation should consider characteristics like gender and caste for equitable representation.

Challenges in Standardization

• Current practices often use gross population counts, leading to misleading per capita measures.
• The demographic approach must recognize population characteristics and attributes for fair allocation and representation.

A demographic outlook is crucial for resolving debates surrounding delimitation and financial devolution, ensuring accurate representation and allocation beyond mere population counts.