India's COVID-19 Impact Assessment: Four Years Post-Delta Variant

Four years have passed since the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus impacted India, causing significant strain on the healthcare system. Reports during the pandemic highlighted the overwhelming effect on health services, oxygen shortages, and distressing images such as bodies in the Ganga.

Excess Deaths During the Pandemic

• Investigations by The Hindu and other independent surveys revealed a significantly higher death toll during the pandemic than officially reported.
• The government initially maintained the accuracy of the reported COVID-19 deaths, which totaled 3.32 lakh in 2021.
• However, a report from the Registrar General of India indicated 21.5 lakh excess deaths in 2021.

Under-reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

• Excess deaths during a pandemic are primarily attributed to the disease, suggesting under-reporting.
• The Hindu estimated excess deaths to be nearly 6.5 times the reported figure.
• States such as Gujarat (44.2 times), Madhya Pradesh (19.5), Uttar Pradesh (19.5), and Telangana (18.2) showed higher multiples of excess deaths, indicating significant under-reporting.
• Possible reasons include misclassification of deaths due to comorbidities and efforts to present a more favorable view of the government's pandemic response.

Delayed Reporting and Data Robustness

• The four-year delay in releasing the pandemic impact report reflects hesitance by the Union government to fully assess and disclose the pandemic's impact.
• Despite improvements in India's civil registration system for births and deaths, timely release of data remains an issue.
• Medical certification of death causes is still low compared to other nations, like Brazil, reducing the effectiveness of public health strategies.
• Delayed data can negate advancements in civil registration, underlining the importance of timely data for public health management.

Ultimately, ensuring accurate and prompt reporting of demographic data is crucial for understanding and managing public health challenges effectively.