Impasse in Manipur: Challenges and Political Dynamics

The ongoing conflict in Manipur has entered its second year, marked by significant human and political crises. Despite over 250 deaths and the displacement of thousands, it hasn’t been prioritized nationally, contrasting with the prompt attention given to other security incidents by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

New Delhi's Engagement Strategy

• Manipur's situation is not perceived as a direct national security threat like Kashmir, which involves international conflict dynamics with Pakistan and China.
• The conflict is often portrayed through a national security lens, focusing on alleged cross-border threats from Myanmar-based Kuki militants, despite these claims lacking substantial backing.
• There is notable silence on the threats from valley-based insurgent groups (VBIGs), which have heightened post the May 2023 violence.

Security Policies and Their Implications

• The government's response involves enforcing a buffer zone to separate the Meiteis and Kuki-Zomi-Hmars, but this has inadvertently empowered local insurgent groups.
• Efforts focus on infrastructure, like border fencing, which may not effectively enhance security or align with the Act East policy aimed at strengthening ties with Myanmar.
• Security policies appear guided by political optics rather than substantive improvements in intelligence and counterinsurgency capabilities.

Challenges in Arms Management

• Over 6,000 sophisticated arms and 500,000 rounds have been distributed among armed groups, yet only around 4,000 have been recovered.
• The voluntary surrender of arms, such as the event involving Arambai Tenggol, is largely symbolic and lacks follow-through actions.

Political Developments and Recommendations

• The imposition of President's Rule indicates a shift towards addressing armed violence, yet returning to normalcy requires genuine engagement with stakeholders.
• For sustainable peace, substantive policy changes are necessary beyond mere political posturing.