Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and Recent Developments

On April 24, Debashree Mukherjee, Secretary of Jal Shakti Ministry, formally communicated with Syed Ali Murtaza, her Pakistani counterpart, about India's desire to modify the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960. Changes over the past 65 years necessitate reassessing the treaty's obligations. Sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan, affecting Jammu and Kashmir, has impeded India's rights under the Treaty. Following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam where 26 tourists were killed, India decided to suspend the Treaty.

Current Infrastructure and Treaty Viability

• India lacks infrastructure to store water if it stops the flow to Pakistan, with potential construction taking a decade or more.
• The IWT has remained functional for 65 years but has shown signs of becoming outdated.

Demographic and Economic Changes

Significant demographic and economic transformations since 1960 have impacted water demands:

• India's population increased from 445 million to 1.46 billion; urbanization rose from 17.94% to 36%.
• Pakistan's population grew from 45.7 million to 255 million, with urbanization nearly doubling.
• India's per capita GDP rose to $2,698 in 2024, surpassing Pakistan's $1,647.

Water Management Challenges

• Escalating water demands due to population growth, urbanization, and economic activities.
• Focus on increasing supply rather than managing demand or maintaining water quality.
• Water tables in Punjab decline over 50 cm annually, necessitating reimagined agricultural practices.

Lessons from China

China's approach offers insights for better water management:

• Reduced irrigation water use per hectare by 40% from 1975 to 2005, while increasing agricultural production 12 times.
• Reduced agricultural water use from 84% to 61% of total water use.

Environmental and Climatic Changes

• IWT does not address issues like groundwater, water quality, climate change, and demand management.
• Himalayan glacier melt affects Indus River flows, with potential reversal post-2050.
• Droughts, floods, and unprecedented heatwaves increase water demand, especially for cooling power plants.

Future Prospects

• The treaty needs mechanisms for adjustments due to changing conditions.
• Serious research on negotiating a "living treaty" is lacking in both countries.
• Pakistan has shown willingness to discuss IWT terms anew, providing a potential opportunity for negotiation.