Climate Change and India's Vulnerability
As climate change progresses, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. A significant portion of India's population, over 80%, resides in districts vulnerable to climate-induced disasters, including monsoon floods and heat-induced crop failures. These environmental challenges pose systemic threats to economic stability, public health, and national security.
Challenges in Climate Risk Assessment and Preparedness
- India lacks a comprehensive framework for evaluating and predicting Climate Physical Risks (CPRs).
- Current adaptation strategies are reactive rather than proactive, thus increasing vulnerability.
- CPRs encompass both acute shocks like floods and heatwaves, and chronic stresses like shifting monsoon patterns.
Need for Adaptation and Mitigation
- Global climate action includes both mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (preparing for impacts).
- Funding is skewed towards mitigation, although adaptation is economically prudent, with every $1 invested yielding a $4 return.
Framework for Assessing Climate Physical Risks
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change outlines that the expected value of CPR is based on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability:
- Hazards: Include floods, cyclones, and heatwaves.
- Exposure: Determines who and what is at risk.
- Vulnerability: Reflects a system's ability to withstand and recover.
Regulatory Shifts and India's Fragmented Approach
- Regulatory bodies are moving from voluntary to mandatory climate risk disclosures.
- Despite initiatives, India's CPR assessment is fragmented across various institutions and lacks a unified system.
Steps Towards Improved Climate Risk Assessment
- India has initiated steps in line with Article 7 of the Paris Agreement to establish a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) by 2025.
- India submitted its first Adaptation Communication report in 2023, with a more comprehensive NAP report underway.
Recommendations for Future Action
- Developing an India-specific CPR assessment tool is crucial for informed public and private decision-making.
- Such a tool should integrate localized climate modeling, granular risk assessment, and a centralized data hub.
By strengthening climate risk assessments, India can ensure that its progress towards Viksit Bharat is not only rapid but also sustainable and future-proof.