Climate Change and India's Vulnerability

As climate change progresses, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. A significant portion of India's population, over 80%, resides in districts vulnerable to climate-induced disasters, including monsoon floods and heat-induced crop failures. These environmental challenges pose systemic threats to economic stability, public health, and national security.

Challenges in Climate Risk Assessment and Preparedness

• India lacks a comprehensive framework for evaluating and predicting Climate Physical Risks (CPRs).
• Current adaptation strategies are reactive rather than proactive, thus increasing vulnerability.
• CPRs encompass both acute shocks like floods and heatwaves, and chronic stresses like shifting monsoon patterns.

Need for Adaptation and Mitigation

• Global climate action includes both mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (preparing for impacts).
• Funding is skewed towards mitigation, although adaptation is economically prudent, with every $1 invested yielding a $4 return.

Framework for Assessing Climate Physical Risks

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change outlines that the expected value of CPR is based on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability:

• Hazards: Include floods, cyclones, and heatwaves.
• Exposure: Determines who and what is at risk.
• Vulnerability: Reflects a system's ability to withstand and recover.

Regulatory Shifts and India's Fragmented Approach

• Regulatory bodies are moving from voluntary to mandatory climate risk disclosures.
• Despite initiatives, India's CPR assessment is fragmented across various institutions and lacks a unified system.

Steps Towards Improved Climate Risk Assessment

• India has initiated steps in line with Article 7 of the Paris Agreement to establish a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) by 2025.
• India submitted its first Adaptation Communication report in 2023, with a more comprehensive NAP report underway.

Recommendations for Future Action

• Developing an India-specific CPR assessment tool is crucial for informed public and private decision-making.
• Such a tool should integrate localized climate modeling, granular risk assessment, and a centralized data hub.

By strengthening climate risk assessments, India can ensure that its progress towards Viksit Bharat is not only rapid but also sustainable and future-proof.