Shifting Contours of Asian Geopolitics

Two significant recent developments highlight the changing dynamics in Asian geopolitics:

• The annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in Singapore, where US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and French President Emmanuel Macron presented differing views on Asian security.
• South Korea's presidential election, with the potential victory of left-leaning candidate Lee Jae-myung, impacting Northeast Asia's strategic landscape.

US-China Relations at the Shangri-La Dialogue

The discussions at the SLD were dominated by US-China relations, highlighting the current crisis in bilateral ties:

• Hegseth emphasized a focus on military capabilities, avoiding economic topics, despite ongoing trade tensions with China.
• Concerns were raised about the risks of escalating US-China rivalry, both economically and geopolitically.
• US commitment to Asian alliances and partnerships was reaffirmed, with an expectation for allies to increase defense spending, a challenging demand for most Asian nations.

European Perspectives on Asian Security

French President Macron and the EU's Kaja Kallas provided a European viewpoint:

• Macron called for strategic autonomy and new coalitions between Europe and Asian partners.
• Emphasis was placed on the interconnected security of Europe and Asia, with a balanced approach to global power dynamics.
• Both were critical of China but avoided direct confrontation, reflecting Europe's nuanced stance amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

South Korea's Political Shift

South Korea's election, following political turbulence, could reshape its foreign policy:

• Lee Jae-myung, a frontrunner, advocates for "pragmatic realism," seeking strategic balance rather than aligning closely with the US.
• Lee's China policy prioritizes economic pragmatism, aiming to stabilize trade while balancing security expectations from the US.
• On North Korea, Lee supports engagement and economic cooperation for denuclearization progress.
• Lee takes a dual-track approach with Japan, supporting trilateral defense initiatives while demanding historical accountability.

Implications for India and Asia

The developments at the SLD and in South Korea exemplify the deepening uncertainty in Asian geopolitics:

• There is tension between alliance building and strategic autonomy, and between economic integration and commercial de-risking.
• India's Asian strategy, based on great-power harmony and economic interdependence, faces challenges amid growing disorder.
• Delhi must enhance national capabilities and strategic flexibility to navigate these changing dynamics.