Nuclear Modernization and Arms Race in 2024-2025
Overview of SIPRI Report
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 2025 report highlights intensive nuclear modernization programs by nearly all nine nuclear-armed countries, including India and Pakistan, indicating an emerging arms race amidst weakened arms control regimes.
India's Nuclear Developments
- Expansion of Arsenal: India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal, increasing its stored warheads from 172 in January 2024 to 180 in January 2025.
- Development of New Systems: India continues to develop new nuclear delivery systems, including 'canisterised' missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads during peacetime.
Pakistan's Nuclear Developments
- Arsenal Size: Pakistan's nuclear warheads remained at 170.
- Increased Tensions: Tensions with India briefly escalated into armed conflict in early 2025, highlighting risks of nuclear crisis due to disinformation and strikes on nuclear infrastructure.
Global Nuclear Arsenal Statistics
- U.S. and Russia: Together possess about 90% of all nuclear weapons and continue extensive modernization programs.
- China: Fastest growing nuclear arsenal, adding approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023; expected to reach 1,500 warheads by 2035, though still only a third of U.S. and Russian stockpiles.
- Total Inventory: Approximately 12,241 warheads globally, with 9,614 in military stockpiles. Around 3,912 are deployed, and about 2,100 are in high operational alert.
Potential Developments
- Modernization Trends: Russia and the U.S. may increase their strategic missile warhead deployments post-2026 if no new agreements are reached.
- China's Expansion: With new ICBM silos, China could have as many ICBMs as Russia or the USA by 2030.
- Regional Nuclear Debates: Renewed discussions in East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East about nuclear strategies could lead to more states developing nuclear capabilities.
This summary provides insights into the growing nuclear capabilities and modernization efforts that highlight the complexities and risks associated with global nuclear arsenals.