India's Assertive Security Doctrine
The Prime Minister of India emphasized Pakistan's "nuclear threats" and "nuclear blackmail" during the parliamentary debate on Operation Sindoor. This articulation reflects India's assertive security doctrine, aiming to redefine the deterrence equation in South Asia by demonstrating readiness to act against terrorism irrespective of Pakistan's nuclear posturing.
Complexity of the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Relationship
- All three countries are modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals.
- Lack of transparency and dialogue heightens nuclear risk, exemplified by the 80th anniversary of Hiroshima as a reminder of nuclear war horrors.
China's Nuclear Strategy
China maintains policies of "credible minimum deterrence" and "no first use" (NFU), yet is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, expected to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030, and deploying advanced missile systems.
Pakistan's Nuclear Posture
- Arsenal primarily targets India, with no official doctrine, but reserves the right to "first use".
- Transition from "minimum credible deterrence" to "full spectrum deterrence" (FSD) aims to counter India's "Cold Start" doctrine.
India's Nuclear Doctrine
- India's nuclear weapons are viewed as deterrents rather than warfighting tools.
- Long-standing beliefs include the threat of "massive retaliation" and maintaining a "credible minimum deterrent."
- Emerging technologies blur distinctions between conventional and nuclear weapons, complicating decision-making in conflicts.
Risks and Misinterpretations
- Incidents like Operation Sindoor highlight the risk of misinterpretation, where conventional strikes near nuclear sites could be seen as nuclear threats.
- The potential for rapid escalation to nuclear war necessitates a dialogue to mitigate risks and misunderstandings.
Need for Sustained Dialogue
Nuclear risk reduction measures (NRRMs) are insufficient; ongoing dialogue between India and Pakistan is crucial to reduce suspicion and enhance transparency, potentially slowing the arms race.