Geopolitical Context of India-China Relations

The geopolitical landscape involving India, China, and the United States has become increasingly complex due to the influence of the current US leadership. His administration's incoherent strategy towards China has raised questions about India's strategic relationship with the US.

US-China Relations 

• The US shifted to viewing China as a "strategic competitor."
• The US's pursuit of a "beautiful deal" with China focused on short-term economic gains over strategic clarity.
• China believes it has managed to withstand US trade pressures and continues its rise.

India-China Dynamics

• India and China seek to improve relations, with the foreign minister's visit to India resulting in a 10-point understanding.
• Agreements included resuming direct flights and reopening border trade points, but the relationship remains fragile.
• The border issue, especially post-eastern Ladakh transgressions, remains at the forefront.

Challenges in India-China Relations

• The China-Pakistan military collaboration, showcased in Operation Sindoor in May 2025, raises concerns.
• Construction of a massive hydropower project by China without considering India's interests as a lower riparian state.
• China's denial of supplies like rare-earth magnets and specialized fertilizers highlights dependency issues.

Strategic Implications for India

• India seeks stable and constructive relations with China, but apprehensions persist due to historical and strategic concerns.
• China's view of India's policy as weak due to its strained US relations adds complexity.
• The Indian Ministry of External Affairs clarified no change in India’s stance on Taiwan and the “One-China Policy”.

Conclusion

The future trajectory of India-China relations depends on China addressing India's concerns genuinely. The process of normalization should be carefully calibrated, with moderated expectations from future diplomatic engagements.