India's Diplomatic Dynamics: Engaging with China and Russia

Author: Mihir S Sharma

Introduction

India's recent diplomatic shift is highlighted by a significant image from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seen holding hands with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. This indicates a strategic effort to rebuild trust with authoritarian figures in the region.

Historical Context

• Five years ago, India and China faced military tensions along the Himalayan border, leading to a decline in bilateral relations.
• India has gradually distanced itself from China by banning Chinese investments and apps, and focusing on Indo-Pacific partnerships, including the United States.

Rationale for Diplomatic Shift

Contrary to assumptions, India's outreach is not solely due to rejection by the US but is driven by economic necessities.

• Indian officials believe that a hard stance on Chinese trade hinders manufacturing investments.
• Apple Inc. and similar companies require cooperation with Chinese partners for efficient supply chains and skilled labor.

Challenges in Indo-China Relations

Despite Modi's persistent efforts, tangible improvements in India-China relations remain elusive.

• Historical attempts at rapprochement, like the 2018 “Wuhan spirit,” have often been disrupted by border tensions.
• Even during the Tianjin summit, divergent official statements reflected underlying tensions.

Russia's Role

India's engagement with Russia is seen as a strategic balance against China's growing influence.

• India and Russia share mutual interests in areas like Central Asia, which may counterbalance China.
• The current warming of relations with Russia may be temporary, dependent on geopolitical factors and Russia's actions, such as the Ukraine invasion.

Conclusion

The complex interplay of India’s relations with China and Russia reflects a strategic balancing act amidst global power dynamics. Modi’s persistent diplomatic outreach often faces setbacks, yet the geopolitical aspirations remain steadfast. Historical patterns suggest that despite efforts, sustained friendly relations between India and China are challenging.