Artificial Intelligence and Trade Growth
The World Trade Organization (WTO) in its 2025 World Trade Report highlights the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to significantly enhance cross-border trade. AI could boost trade value by nearly 40% by 2040 through productivity gains and reduced trade costs.
Requirements for Inclusive Growth
- Policies need to bridge the digital divide.
- Investment in workforce skills is essential.
- An open and predictable trading environment must be maintained.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasizes the uneven access to AI technologies and digital trade participation.
Potential Increases in Global Trade and GDP
- AI could increase global trade by 34-37% by 2040.
- Global GDP may see a rise of 12-13% under various scenarios.
Trade can enable AI-supported growth by providing access to AI-enabling goods like raw materials and semiconductors, with a total estimated trade of $2.3 trillion in 2023.
Closing the Digital Infrastructure Gap
Narrowing the digital infrastructure gap by 50% between economies can lead to:
- 15% income rise in low-income economies.
- 14% income rise in middle-income economies.
Challenges and Policy Recommendations
The report highlights challenges like increased quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods, which rose from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. There are also uneven tariffs, with some reaching 45% in low-income economies.
- Investing in education and training is crucial.
- Appropriate labor market policies are needed to prevent widening inequality.
