Shifts in India-Pakistan Maritime Strategy

Recent developments in India-Pakistan relations have moved focus from air to maritime confrontation, marked by strategic naval activities and posturing from both sides.

Background and Recent Developments

• The May 2025 standoff with Pakistan, which initially involved air domain engagement, has shifted focus to the maritime theater.
• India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warned of significant repercussions for Pakistan if any misadventure occurs in the Sir Creek area, amidst Pakistan's military infrastructure expansion there.
• Admiral Dinesh Tripathi stated that India's Navy would be the first to act in any future conflict with Pakistan.
• Operation Sindoor emphasized a forward naval deterrent posture, suggesting an active role for India's Navy.
• India's maritime strategy includes the induction of INS Nistar and joint patrols with the Philippines, aligning with a wider Indo-Pacific strategy.
• Pakistan has launched the Hangor-class submarine PNS Mangro and the P282 ship-launched missile, indicating strengthened capabilities.

Shifts in Naval Capabilities and Posture

Both countries are recalibrating their naval strategies, indicating preparedness for potential maritime confrontation.

• India's modernized naval fleet, despite numerical and geographic advantages, faces aging concerns.
• Pakistan enhances its maritime capabilities with Chinese and Turkish support, narrowing the naval gap with India.

Implications of Naval Engagement

• Naval engagements carry higher escalation risks compared to aerial confrontations, making control more challenging.
• Pakistan's strategy focuses on deterrence-by-denial, prompted by vulnerabilities exposed in previous conflicts.
• Gwadar port, a strategic psychological and operational point, is emphasized under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

External Influence and Strategic Dynamics

• Chinese involvement in Karachi and Gwadar ports introduces complexities, possibly involving the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
• Türkiye's role, though limited, adds another dimension to the regional military dynamics.
• The maritime arena is becoming a platform for testing naval capabilities and signaling strategic thresholds.

Strategic Challenges and Future Directions

• Both countries’ militaries might be relying on outdated crisis assumptions, risking miscalculations due to evolving technological capabilities.
• Continuous naval presence shapes perceptions of intent and resolve, contrasting with the ephemeral nature of air skirmishes.
• There is potential for mutual awareness and reduced conflict ambiguity through ongoing naval observations and interactions.
• India’s commissioning of stealth frigates and focus on indigenous naval capacity suggests preparation for increased regional influence and crisis management.

In conclusion, India's strategic decisions in the maritime domain will determine whether it uses the maritime theater as a signaling arena or retains it for strategic escalation.