Shifting Global Economic Consensus
The current global economic landscape is witnessing a significant transformation, marked by the United States and China engaging in a great-power conflict, leading to new geo-economic ecosystems prioritizing national self-interests. This shift is reshaping global trade flows, financial markets, and strategic calculations, presenting an opportunity to establish a more equitable world order.
Populist-Autocrats and Economic Impact
- State-Capital Gordian Knot:
- Populist-autocrats are entangling state and capital interests, favoring oligopolies and crony-capitalists.
- This approach mortgaging national assets and distorts policies, impacting the social contract of nations.
- America's Strategic Recalibration:
- Focuses on securing trade and supply routes, and digital-currency ecosystems, often at the cost of geopolitical tensions.
- Pressure on Europe to manage Russia and Israel to manage West Asia illustrates this recalibration.
Big Tech and Digital Colonialism
- Impact of Big Tech:
- Reshaping global economies and political outcomes, often supporting populist-autocrats.
- Digital Colonialism:
- Efforts such as the AI Action Plan and the SWIFT system impact national economic sovereignties.
Developmental Aid Withdrawal
- Impact on Vulnerable Populations:
- Funding cuts, such as the $44 billion by G-7, increase poverty and migration in regions like Africa and Nepal.
- Reduction of aid impacts programs like the World Food Programme, causing socio-political tensions.
Trade and Economic Disruptions
- U.S. Tariffs and Sanctions:
- Tariffs and sanctions on numerous nations disrupt global trade and economic flows.
- Global South's Response:
- Seeking economic alternatives such as bilateral treaties and currency alternatives.
Opportunities for India and Global South
The current disruptions present opportunities for countries like China and India. The historical context of neoliberal globalization, characterized by extreme wealth concentration and socio-economic inequalities, necessitates a New Economic Deal for equitable growth.
Proposed Strategic Actions for India
- International Financial Reform:
- India should advocate for overhauling international financial institutions for fairer representation of the Global South.
- Domestic and Foreign Policy Recalibration:
- Strengthen bipartisan relationships and adopt substantive foreign policy focused on non-alignment.
- Strategic Economic Management:
- Adopt a commanding role in critical sectors while preventing oligopolistic control through strong anti-monopoly norms.
India must leverage this opportunity to establish itself in the emerging global order by aligning domestic policies with constitutional and national goals, ensuring inclusive and sustainable growth.