Pakistan's Complex Dynamics with the Taliban

Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan has evolved significantly since the Taliban recaptured Kabul in August 2021. Initially considered a tactical victory, the return of the Taliban has led to unforeseen challenges for Pakistan, particularly in terms of security and regional stability.

Rise in Militant Attacks

• TTP Resurgence: The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), despite being distinct from the Afghan Taliban, shares their ideology and has been strengthened by their return. 
• Militancy Statistics: In 2025, at least 2,414 people were killed due to militancy-related violence in Pakistan, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa being notably affected. 

Pak-Afghan Tensions

• Cross-border Clashes: Pakistan accused the Afghan Taliban of sheltering TTP militants, leading to cross-border conflicts and airstrikes by Pakistan in Kabul. 
• Ceasefire: Qatar brokered a fragile ceasefire following a week of deadly cross-border encounters. 

Diplomatic and Strategic Shifts

• Patron-Client to State Ties: The former relationship of support and refuge for the Taliban by Pakistan has transitioned to complex state-to-state interactions. 
• Durand Line Dispute: The colonial-era border remains a contentious issue as Kabul has not recognized it. 
• India's Role: Pakistan is wary of India's growing diplomatic relations with the Taliban. 

Consequences of Pakistan's Strategy

• Policy Contradictions: Pakistan's historic backing of the Taliban was aimed at strategic depth but has now resulted in internal security challenges. 
• Instability and Insurgency: Efforts to restore security through military action in Afghanistan are unlikely to succeed and may exacerbate instability. 

In conclusion, while Pakistan initially viewed the Taliban's return to power as advantageous, the resurgence of militant activities, coupled with complex regional dynamics and policy contradictions, presents significant security and diplomatic challenges.