The upcoming UNFCCC COP is scheduled to be held in Belem, Brazil, from November 10 to 25. This meeting comes at a challenging time for climate negotiations, which have evolved significantly since the UNFCCC's inception in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro. Initially, the focus was on commitments and responsibilities. However, the current context is more contentious.
Key Challenges
- US Stance: The United States, under President Donald Trump, has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement again and is promoting fossil fuels aggressively. The US remains influential at the UNFCCC, using its position to disrupt progress.
- European Ambivalence: Despite positioning itself as a climate leader, Europe is scaling back its climate ambitions, creating uncertainty in global climate efforts.
- Criticism of Climate Priorities: Figures like Bill Gates suggest that global warming should not be the paramount global priority, advocating a focus on health and prosperity instead.
- World Bank Focus Shift: The World Bank is prioritizing employment over sustainability, despite calls for increased climate funding.
Brazil's Strategy
- Brazil aims to focus on implementation rather than new commitments, with veteran diplomat Andre do Lago presiding over the COP.
- Brazil is broadening the climate discourse by proposing an Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade at the WTO, although this idea is met with mixed reactions.
BRICS and Global South Role
- The BRICS countries are encouraged to support the Global South's demands for climate action, leveraging their collective influence.
- The International Court of Justice has underscored the legal obligation of countries to address climate change.
Strategic Implications
- With the US withdrawn and Europe uncertain, curbing China's bid for global leadership in climate change is critical.
- India views collaborative global climate action as essential for achieving its goals of Viksit Bharat by 2047 and net zero by 2070.
- India has expressed interest in hosting the COP in 2028, underscoring its commitment to multilateral climate negotiations.
