Diplomacy and the Trump-Xi Meeting

Diplomacy is often compared to theatre, with summits involving scripts, staging, and deliberate silences. The brief meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the October 2025 APEC Summit in Busan was more revealing in terms of its atmosphere and setting than through official statements.

• The meeting was held at Gimhae Air Base, a South Korean military facility used by the US, symbolically uncomfortable for China as it highlighted ongoing American power in East Asia.
• China agreed to ease export controls on rare earth minerals, increase US soybean imports, cooperate on fentanyl precursor controls, and consider purchasing Alaskan oil, reflecting pressure management rather than surrender.
• Key issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and US chip restrictions were strategically omitted, aiming to buy time amid domestic challenges.

China's Domestic and Strategic Context

China's domestic challenges include a prolonged property slump, high local government debt, youth unemployment, and diminishing foreign investor confidence.

• The Fourth Plenum of the 20th Party Congress reflected a subdued mood, marking a shift from assertive policies like the South China Sea island-building.
• There is a resurgence of Deng Xiaoping's principle of "taoguang yanghui," emphasizing a strategic pause and recalibration.
• China's recalibration is visible in security, diplomacy, and domestic politics, focusing on vigilance and stability without provocation.

China's Future Path

China's future strategy could follow one of three paths:

• Strategic Pause: Stabilizing the economy and rebuilding external trust, mirroring a modern Deng-style reset.
• Drift: A decade of half-measures, nationalism, and policy unpredictability.
• Quiet Adaptation: Technological gains, new supply chains, and pragmatic diplomacy to regain momentum.

Implications for India

India can learn from the Busan meeting by reading both China and itself carefully.

• India should use this period to strengthen economic, military, and technological resilience without imitating China.
• PM Narendra Modi's cautious approach at the ASEAN Summit reflects strategic restraint.
• India should avoid triumphalism and instead quietly prepare for potential changes in China's posture.

Managing Relations with the US

India should manage its relationship with the US, particularly with President Trump, with a strategic and cautious approach.

• Focus on a firm, unsentimental partnership with the wider US system, including Congress, the Pentagon, and other stakeholders.
• Set boundaries early and privately, cooperating only where it serves India's long-term interests.
• India's influence should be as a strong, independent voice, not as an echo of US policies.

Conclusion

The Busan meeting was not a settlement but a pause, with strategic quiet that may lead to renewal, stagnation, or resurgence. India should use the pause to reinforce guardrails, reduce flashpoints, and prepare for the future.