The Global Nuclear Order: Challenges and Contradictions

The global nuclear order, despite several achievements, is currently facing significant strain. Although no nuclear weapons have been used since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, the threat remains due to geopolitical tensions and recent developments.

Key Achievements in Nuclear Disarmament

• Global nuclear arsenals have decreased from a peak of 65,000 in the late 1970s to less than 12,500 today.
• The number of nuclear-armed states remains at nine, contrary to concerns in the 1960s that this number could increase to at least two dozen by 1980.
• The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was negotiated with efforts led by the U.S. under President Bill Clinton, though it has not yet entered into force.

Current Challenges and Developments

• Recent announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump indicate plans to resume nuclear tests, potentially destabilizing the global nuclear test ban regime.
• China, Russia, and the U.S. are actively designing new nuclear weapons, with recent tests conducted by Russia on nuclear-powered missiles and torpedoes.
• The U.S. and Russia have refrained from explosive nuclear tests since the 1990s but have continued non-explosive testing under various programs.
• The CTBT requires states not to conduct nuclear weapon test explosions; however, some states have reportedly conducted low-yield, non-explosive tests.

Potential Consequences

• Resuming explosive nuclear testing could trigger a renewed arms race and undermine the non-proliferation regime established by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
• A resumption of tests would provide China with opportunities to validate new designs, potentially accelerating its nuclear capabilities.
• India, observing a voluntary moratorium since 1998, might resume testing to validate its nuclear designs in response to such developments.
• Pakistan, closely linked with China, is likely to follow suit if explosive testing resumes.
• The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in 2026 without renewal prospects further complicates the situation.

Future Considerations

The global nuclear order, shaped by 20th-century geopolitics, faces the challenge of adapting to the fractured geopolitics of the 21st century while maintaining the taboo against nuclear weapon use. The United Nations Secretary-General has warned of the high nuclear risks, urging nations to avoid actions that could lead to catastrophic miscalculations or escalations.

The need for a new nuclear order that addresses contemporary challenges and ensures global security is evident, as reliance on outdated paradigms may not suffice in today's geopolitical landscape.