IMF Assessment of India's National Accounts Statistics

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted its annual review of India's national accounts statistics, giving it a grade of ‘C’, the second-lowest possible. This indicates data shortcomings that hamper effective surveillance.

Key Points from the IMF Review

• India's national accounts, including figures like GDP and GVA, are considered adequate in frequency, timeliness, and granularity but have methodological weaknesses.
• India's overall data rating across categories is ‘B’.
• The outdated base year of 2011-12 and reliance on wholesale price indices for deflators highlight data limitations.
• Periodic discrepancies between production and expenditure approaches in GDP measurement suggest the need for better coverage, particularly of the informal sector.
• Lack of seasonally adjusted data and outdated statistical techniques were also noted as areas needing improvement.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• The CPI received a ‘B’ grade, indicating some shortcomings but adequate for surveillance.
• The outdated base year (2011-12), items basket, and weights suggest the CPI may not fully capture current spending patterns.

Additional Observations

• Other government data facets like finance, external sector, monetary, and inter-sectoral consistency also scored ‘B’.
• The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is updating the GDP and CPI base years and methodologies, with new series expected by 2026.
• The IMF noted that plans to upgrade real sector statistics are progressing, although data weaknesses remain largely unchanged since the last report.

This analysis is crucial as it highlights areas where India’s national economic data can be improved to enhance economic surveillance and policymaking.