Population Stabilization in India
India's population is projected to stabilize by 2080 at 1.8 or 1.9 billion due to a declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is currently at 1.9, below the replacement level. This is part of a rapid demographic transition marked by a significant drop in birth rates over the past two decades.
Key Factors Contributing to Population Stabilization
- The TFR in 2000 was 3.5 and has now decreased to 1.9.
- The decline in fertility is mainly attributed to:
- Increasing levels of development and education.
- Rising female literacy impacting marriage and childbearing decisions.
- Enhanced access to contraceptives and birth control.
- Better-informed couples exercising more control over family planning.
- Late marriages and growing economic opportunities, particularly for women.
Fertility Trends and Examples
- Development inversely affects birth rates, with illiterate groups having a fertility level above three, while the educated have TFRs between 1.5 and 1.8.
- Kerala achieved replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989 and currently has a TFR of about 1.5.
- West Bengal has seen its TFR drop from 1.7 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2023, placing it among the lowest in India.
Challenges and Considerations
- While birth rates are declining, life expectancy is rising due to healthcare improvements, leading to more people living beyond 60.
- Challenges include elderly care as younger populations migrate for work, with discussions on solutions like elderly day-care facilities.
