Satellite Congestion and the Risk of Cascading Collisions
Scientists warn of a narrow window of less than three days to prevent a satellite disaster if a solar storm disrupts operations in low Earth orbit. A single collision could initiate a debris chain reaction, making orbits unusable for future activities.
Kessler Syndrome
- Definition: A scenario where debris from one satellite collision causes further collisions.
- History: Proposed in 1978, now considered a near-present risk.
Current Orbital Environment
- By 2024, over 14,000 satellites are expected to orbit Earth, primarily from megaconstellations.
- SpaceX's Starlink has deployed 8,811 satellites by October 2025.
- Past incidents, like a 2019 near-miss, highlight collision risks.
The CRASH Clock
- Definition: Collision Realisation and Significant Harm measure.
- Currently stands at 2.8 days, compared to 121 days in 2018.
- Estimates time to a catastrophic collision if avoidance fails.
Threats and Consequences
- Solar storms pose a major threat by disrupting satellite systems.
- Within 24 hours of failure, there's a 30% chance of a collision, 26% involving Starlink.
- A collision could result in massive debris, escalating further risks.
Implications for Society
- Modern services (navigation, communications) depend on satellite functionality.
- A single collision could alter operational norms, akin to an environmental disaster.
- Improved tools are needed to manage orbital stress and prevent long-term hazards.
