Escalating Violence in Bangladesh

The political landscape in Bangladesh is currently a matter of concern for India due to increasing violence and anti-Indian rhetoric, particularly as national elections approach.

• The death of a student leader on December 19, allegedly due to an Awami League activist's actions, sparked violence targeting minorities.
• Incidents include the lynching of a Hindu garment worker and the targeting of Indian government assets.

India's Response and Challenges

India's response to the situation has been cautious thus far.

• Visa services have been suspended in Khulna, Rajshahi, and Chittagong.
• There is an increased focus on India's security perceptions due to the complex political dynamics in Bangladesh.

Political Context in Bangladesh

• Rising closeness of Bangladesh to Pakistan and China affects India-Bangladesh relations.
• Muhammad Yunus, the "chief advisor," has limited control over the interim government.
• The Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami is gaining influence, with Pakistani support.
• Increased collaboration between Bangladesh and China, including defense ties.
• India shelters Sheikh Hasina, despite her being sentenced in absentia in Bangladesh.

Impact on Economic Ties

Civil unrest in Bangladesh is impacting Indian economic assets significantly.

• Disruption in the textile sector, where a quarter of units are Indian-owned.
• Challenges for Indian-owned fast-moving consumer goods firms and decline in medical tourism from Bangladesh to India.

Strategic Options for India

India's strategic choices are limited, with calls for intervention to install a friendly regime being debated.

• Direct intervention is not considered optimal due to unclear objectives and the uncertain strength of pro-Indian forces in Bangladesh.
• A more measured approach emphasizes ensuring the safety of Indian citizens, engaging with moderate forces, and avoiding communal tensions.
• Historical precedence shows that moderation has been more beneficial than interventionist policies.