Geopolitical Shifts and Conflicts

The global order established post-World War II faced significant upheavals by 2025, influenced by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term and regional conflicts such as the India-Pakistan skirmish and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. Despite tensions, India managed to improve ties with Europe and re-engage with Canada and China.

India-U.S. Relations under Trump 2.0

• Initially optimistic about U.S.-India relations post-Trump's re-election, early trade talks commenced.
• Relations soured due to high tariffs imposed by Trump and reduced oil imports from Russia mandated for India.

India-Pakistan Tensions

• Operation Sindoor was paused to manage escalations after a terror attack, with India setting new redlines against nuclear blackmail.
• Pakistan's internal politics saw Field Marshal Munir consolidating power similar to General Zia-ul-Haq.

Regional Upheavals

• Nepal: Anti-corruption protests led to a government change, with an interim administration forming under former Chief Justice Sushila Karki.
• Bangladesh: Political unrest continued post-Sheikh Hasina's ouster, with legitimacy challenges for the interim government.

Tension in West Asia

• A Trump-brokered ceasefire temporarily halted the Gaza war despite ongoing violations.
• U.S. and Israel exercised control over Iran after military confrontations.

War in Ukraine

• Efforts for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine persist with unresolved territorial and security disagreements.

India's Strategic Moves

In response to global tensions, India pursued strategic autonomy, balancing relations with major powers while enhancing regional ties.

Outreach to China and Russia

• Engagement with Chinese and Russian leaders at the SCO summit indicated India's effort to maintain strategic autonomy.

Re-engagement with Canada

• Both countries are working to rebuild political and economic ties post-Khalistan separatist controversy.

Turkey and Afghanistan Relations

• Ties with Turkey declined due to its support for Pakistan.
• Conversely, India strengthened its engagement with Taliban-led Afghanistan.

International Summits and Future Engagements

India is poised to play a significant role in international forums, showcasing its strategic autonomy and technological prowess.

Key Summits

• BRICS and Quad Summit: Hosting these will test India's diplomatic capabilities.
• Artificial Intelligence Impact Summit: Follows the G20 summit, emphasizing India's tech sector.

European Focus

• India aims to strengthen ties with the EU through trade deals and high-profile visits by European leaders.

Pakistan and Regional Elections

• India remains vigilant regarding potential conflicts with Pakistan.
• Upcoming elections in Nepal and Bangladesh could reshape regional dynamics.

Peace Efforts in West Asia

• Reviving the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor could be pivotal in stabilizing the region.

India's diplomatic strategy in 2026 focuses on balancing autonomy and alignment amidst a complex global landscape.