US-India Trade Deal and Trust Deficit
The recent US-India trade deal represents a significant de-escalation in diplomatic tensions, after a period characterized by high tariffs and strained relations. However, the agreement does not fully resolve the trust issues between the two nations.
Background and Issues
- The trust deficit began with coercive trade policies, leading to US duties on Indian exports increasing up to 50%, impacting India's perceived reliability.
- Political tensions were exacerbated by US involvement in India-Pakistan issues, including President Trump's claims regarding mediation in the Kashmir conflict, which India viewed as interference.
Impacts of the Trade Deal
- The agreement reduces US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and removes penalties related to India's Russian oil imports.
- The reduction of tariffs is more symbolic, representing a move towards de-escalation rather than a complete solution.
Ongoing Cooperation and Institutional Resilience
- The US and India signed a 10-year defense framework, illustrating continued security cooperation.
- India engages more in military exercises with the US than any other country, showing a robust security partnership.
- Key figures like Ambassador Sergio Gor played essential roles in achieving the trade breakthrough, highlighting the institutionalization of the partnership.
Steps Forward for Sustainable Trust
- Strategic moves need to be leader-driven to ensure long-term alignment and trust restoration.
- Addressing "Pakistan optics" is crucial; the US should clarify its stance, emphasizing it is not mediating between India and Pakistan or rehyphenating the two countries.
- A presidential visit to India, ideally through a Quad leaders’ summit, could serve as a significant confidence-building event.
The US-India trade deal is a positive step, but restoring full trust requires disciplined political actions and strategic leadership. Institutional efforts maintain the partnership, but leadership is essential to reestablish a clear and stable relationship.
