India's Diplomatic Response to Middle East Crisis

Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) following the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran. This marked New Delhi's initial response to the escalating situation in the Middle East.

India's Stance

• India condemned the attacks on the UAE and expressed solidarity with it.
• India advocated for de-escalation, regional peace, security, and stability.
• Modi communicated with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, highlighting India's support.
• Indian expatriates, constituting 35% of UAE's population, are an essential consideration in India's diplomatic approach.

Diplomatic Challenges and Relationships

• India's diplomatic challenge includes its principles on sovereignty and territorial integrity, its complex relationship with Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and evolving ties with the US.
• The CCS meeting included high-profile ministers and officials such as Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and NSA Ajit Doval. However, no official statement was made regarding Khamenei's death.
• The Iranian embassy in Delhi urged global condemnation of the US-Israel attack, indicating potential diplomatic friction.

Recent Diplomatic Efforts

• India's diplomatic efforts include a quiet visit to Iran by Deputy NSA and PM Modi's recent trip to Israel.
• External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has been in communication with regional leaders, including Oman’s Foreign Minister, as Oman plays a mediatory role between the US and Iran.

India-Iran Relations

• India's relationship with Khamenei was not straightforward due to his criticisms of India's minority treatment.
• Nevertheless, Iran supported India on international platforms, such as the UN Human Rights Commission regarding Kashmir.
• Khamenei's killing, along with family members, has made him a "martyr," impacting the Shia community in India.

Security Concerns and Diplomatic Strategy

• The Indian government is cautious about potential threats to diplomatic establishments within its borders.
• India's engagement with the Iranian regime continues, with quiet diplomatic channels maintained since Deputy NSA Kapoor's visit in January.
• The Iranian regime has a strong hierarchy, prepared for leadership transitions, and has begun signaling continuity.

Regional and International Dynamics

• India is navigating its strategic partnerships, balancing relations with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran.
• The US military buildup in the region poses further challenges to India's diplomatic maneuvers.
• A government source described the situation as "uncharted territory," requiring agility and real-time diplomatic strategy.