US-Israel Military Strike on Iran
The United States and Israel have launched a joint military operation against Iran with the goal of facilitating regime change and gaining control of Iran's hydrocarbon resources. The broader objective is to establish hegemonic influence in West Asia.
Political and Military Context
- The US has eliminated Tehran’s top political and military leadership but struggles to achieve its political goals.
- Despite the attacks, the Iranian regime remains in power and resistance persists, leading to a potential prolonged conflict in West Asia for the US.
- Internally, Iran faces brewing protests, and its external networks are weakened. Key allies like Moscow are preoccupied, and support from other allies like Beijing is unlikely due to their commercial interests with Washington.
Strategic Implications
- Washington views the fall of the Iranian regime as a step to becoming the sole arbiter in the region, curtailing Russia and China's influence and controlling oil and gas flows.
- However, regime collapse may spur radical and extremist forces, as seen in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
- The US has a history of unsatisfactory interventions in the region, contributing to a 60% disapproval rate among American voters for Trump's military actions in Iran.
Nuclear Deal and Retaliation
- The attack on Iran was justified on the grounds of curbing nuclear capabilities, despite Iran’s compliance with the 2015 Nuclear Deal, which the US withdrew from in 2018.
- Iran retaliated by launching strikes on American bases in multiple countries and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil and gas prices.
Global Impact
- The conflict has led to increased global oil prices and economic slowdowns, impacting inflation worldwide.
- The conflict touched India when the US sunk an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, leading to calls for a diplomatic protest from India.
India's Strategic Considerations
- India's immediate concerns include the safe return of its nationals and securing oil and gas supplies.
- In the long-term, India should work with BRICS and European nations to facilitate dialogue and conflict cessation.
- Engaging proactively in resolving global conflicts could redefine India's multi-alignment policy.
