External Dependencies and National Security

The strategic landscape of India's development has historically been shaped by four critical external dependencies: food, foreign exchange, defence equipment, and energy. These dependencies have periodically imposed constraints on national security and foreign policy, highlighted by several historical crises.

Historical Context and Lessons

• 1957-58 Foreign Exchange Crisis: Highlighted financial constraints.
• 1962 China War: Revealed deficiencies in defence equipment.
• 1965-67 Droughts: Exposed crucial reliance on food imports, with attempts by the US to influence policy during the Vietnam war.
• 1990 Gulf War: Oil price spike led to a balance-of-payments crisis, necessitating economic and policy reforms.

Recent Geopolitical Developments

The recent weaponization of finance and energy supplies by major economies like the US, as seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, showcases the ongoing constraints on independent foreign policy. The US's actions under President Trump, particularly concerning energy security, have strained bilateral trust.

India's Self-Reliance (Atmanirbharta)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized the importance of self-reliance, a principle reminiscent of Nehru's policies. The need for self-reliance arises from the constraints imposed by the US's policies on trade, energy, and critical technologies. Trust-building efforts like the US-India COMPACT and TRUST agreements have been undermined by recent geopolitical events.

Implications for India's Energy Security

• Energy Security Partnership: Originally aimed at ensuring affordability and reliability.
• Impact of US-Israel Actions: The involvement in West Asia threatens India's energy and economic interests.

Policy Recommendations

It's advised that India avoids new agreements with the US under the Trump administration due to its unpredictable policies, advocating for a more robust self-reliance approach.

New Vulnerabilities and Diaspora Dynamics

Elite emigration has emerged as a new vulnerability for India. The Indian diaspora, traditionally a source of soft power and foreign exchange, faces challenges from US anti-immigration policies. Furthermore, India's global power elite is susceptible to external influence, reminiscent of Cold War dynamics.

Influence and Policy Shaping

• External Influence: The US and allies exploit India's globalized elite to shape domestic policy narratives.
• Historical Parallels: Similar to Cold War era tactics, with increased activities by contemporary "influencers".

Leadership and Big-Power Rivalry

Prime Minister Modi's leadership is compared to Indira Gandhi's, highlighting the need for courage against big-power pressures. The contemporary geopolitical contest involves the US, Russia, and China, requiring astute management to prevent external dependencies from becoming strategic vulnerabilities.