Demographic Influence on Delimitation and Seat Allocation
As India becomes the world’s most populous nation, delimitation based on the upcoming Census 2026 is imminent. The 84th Constitutional Amendment of 2002 extended the freeze on the number of seats in Parliament and State Legislatures until after the Census following 2026. This amendment was influenced by the need to motivate states to pursue population stabilization.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Population Stabilization
- In 2005, nine states achieved a TFR of 2.1 or less, indicating population stabilization.
- By 2021, most major states had achieved this TFR except Bihar, U.P., Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Manipur.
- States with TFRs above the national mean were still significantly higher than early achievers.
Proposals for Seat Allocation Post-2026 Census
- Consider the Demographic Performance (DemPer) of states in seat allocation.
- No change to the existing 543 seats in the Lok Sabha; DemPer applies to additional seats.
- Early TFR achievement (before 2005) should have 10% weight, and TFR decline rate (2005-2021) should have 90% weight.
- This method ensures populous states receive more seats, but performing states do not lose seat share.
Federal Fairness and Lok Sabha Expansion
Applying DemPer balances democratic equality with federal fairness and protects incentives for good governance. It also addresses the size of the Lok Sabha, ensuring it does not exceed 700 seats to maintain efficient democratic debate. This approach fosters fair federalism, acknowledging states as vital political entities.
The delimitation exercise should consider contributions from states across India, beyond the North-South divide, ensuring fair representation and federal stability.
