Overview of the Legislative Proposal
The Union government is introducing the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026, alongside a Delimitation Bill, to operationalize the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (106th Amendment of 2023). This aims to reserve one-third of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats for women. However, it is tied to a post-Census delimitation, which raises concerns.
Political Implications
- The bundling of women's reservation with delimitation is seen as a strategy to advantage States where the BJP is electorally strong, potentially reshaping the federal composition of Parliament.
- The Census, delayed since 2021, is now planned for 2026-27, enabling the government to initiate the delimitation exercise based on the 2011 Census.
Key Amendments and Changes
- Lok Sabha Membership: The ceiling is raised from 530 elected members from States and 20 from Union Territories to potentially 850 members.
- Definition of Population: The fixed Census reference is replaced with a flexible definition allowing Parliament to determine it by law.
- Seat Allocation Freeze: The existing freeze on seat allocation is removed, impacting States that have stabilized their populations.
Impact on States
- Based on the 2011 Census, Hindi-heartland States are projected to see a 77% increase in seats, while southern States will only see a 33% increase.
- This shift could reduce political representation for socio-economically advanced States, exacerbating issues of fiscal federalism.
Opposition and Concerns
- The timing of the bill's introduction, ahead of elections in two crucial States, raises suspicions of political motives.
- There is an argument for implementing women's reservation within the existing 543-seat Lok Sabha by designating constituencies for women on a rotational basis.
- Concerns are raised regarding the potential erosion of the federal foundations of the Indian Union due to the proposed changes.
Overall, the proposed amendments have significant implications for the distribution of political power among Indian States, potentially benefitting some regions over others based on historical population trends.
