India's Forests and Climate Change
India's forests play a critical role as a carbon sink, absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it in plant matter like trunks, branches, leaves, and roots. However, the impact of climate change on this carbon storage capacity has been uncertain.
Study Overview
- The study conducted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, led by Fitha Fathima, Mareena Mathew, and Roxy Mathew Koll, has been published in Environmental Research: Climate.
- It examines changes in forest carbon storage across India during different time periods: the recent past, near future, mid-century, and late century, under varying fossil fuel emissions scenarios.
Key Findings
- Projected increases in carbon storage are uneven across major forest regions in India.
- Largest gains are expected in the Desert and Semi-Arid zones, followed by the Trans-Himalaya, Indo-Gangetic forest belt, and Deccan Peninsula.
- The Western Ghats, Northeast, and Himalayan forests show more modest increases.
- Average living forest carbon is projected to rise from 7.74 kg/m² historically to 10.24 under low emissions, 11.76 under medium emissions, and 13.67 under high emissions by the late 21st century.
- This represents increases of approximately 35%, 62%, and 97% by 2100.
- Rainfall variability has a more significant impact on forest carbon changes than temperature.
- Rainfall effects manifest over several years, with a two-year lag under low and medium emissions and a four-year lag under high emissions.
Implications and Recommendations
- The study highlights that climate change affects forests differently across regions.
- Increased risks from drought, fire, and other disturbances are anticipated.
- Future forest management must be region-specific, climate-aware, and focused on risk prevention.
According to Prof. Koll, India's forests are not uniformly responding to climate change. Fitha Fathima emphasizes the importance of understanding these changes for future environmental resilience. Pramit Deb Burman notes that forests respond to climate variations over time, while Rajiv Chaturvedi highlights the need for improved modeling efforts considering nutrient limitations.
