Impact of US Sanctions Waiver on India's Crude Oil Supply from Russia
India's crude oil supply from Russia might be affected if the United States does not renew the sanctions waiver that allows the purchase of petroleum products from Moscow.
Current Waiver Status
- The latest US waiver permits countries to purchase Russian crude oil and petroleum products until May 16, provided they were loaded onto vessels on or before April 17.
- As of now, the US has not renewed this waiver.
Implications if the Waiver is Not Renewed
- Payment Constraints: Without the waiver, Indian oil companies need to scale back purchases due to payment and related issues.
- Sanctioned Entities: The waiver allows purchase from Russian oil producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil, previously sanctioned by the US.
- Impact on Supply: Before the sanctions, these producers supplied around 60% of India’s Russian oil purchases.
India's Response
- Indian refiners plan to continue buying Russian oil, albeit in reduced volumes.
- Alternate crude oil sourcing arrangements have been made in preparation for a potential waiver non-renewal.
Current Import Trends
- In April, Russia remained India's top oil supplier, though imports decreased by 16.7% month-on-month to 1.7 million barrels per day.
- The decline is due to maintenance at the Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
Strategic Adjustments
Indian refiners have increased crude oil purchases from Russia, adapting to supply constraints from other regions such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
