India's Projected Economic Growth Compared to China
According to the Global Justice Report: A Plan for Equality & Prosperity Within Planetary Boundaries by the World Inequality Lab, India is expected to surpass China in terms of the share of global output in purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2060.
- Current GDP Share:
- India: Approximately 8% in PPP terms, set to increase to 16% by 2100.
- China: Approximately 20% in PPP terms, projected to decline to 7% by 2100.
- Demographic Trends: China's population share is declining rapidly, from 23% of the world population in 1945 to less than 8% in 2100.
- Multipolar Global Economy: The world is transitioning towards a more balanced economic power distribution, unlike previous eras dominated by single powers like the US or Europe.
Sustainable Convergence Scenario
- Countries aim to narrow income gaps while adhering to climate limits.
- Poorer regions, such as South and South-East Asia, will grow faster than advanced economies.
- India has higher inequality but lower productivity growth compared to China.
Key Factors for Economic Convergence
- Human Capital: Improvements in education and health could lead to 50-70% of productivity growth in regions like South and South-East Asia.
- Social-Sector Spending: Labor devoted to education and health to increase significantly, with expenditures rising from 13% to 38% of world GDP by 2100.
- Income Growth: South and South-East Asia expected to achieve 3-4% annual per-capita income growth.
Wealth Redistribution and Taxation
- Global wealth concentration expected to reduce, with the billionaire class's share of wealth dropping from 6.4% to 0.05% by 2100.
- The wealth share of the bottom 50% is projected to rise from 2% to 30%, while the top 10% will see a decline from 76% to 25%.
- Progressive taxation and redistribution are essential for supporting spending on climate, education, and health care.
Conclusions
The report outlines a framework for achieving global income convergence and environmental sustainability, emphasizing the importance of technology diffusion, investment in education and health care, and redistribution mechanisms.
