Monsoon Arrival and Forecast
The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, missing its normal date by three days and lagging behind the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast by four days. This marks the first such delay by the IMD since 2015.
Monsoon Impact and Forecast
- The timing of the monsoon's arrival has little direct impact on the total rainfall over the season.
- IMD predicts seasonal rainfall to be 90% of the long-period average, indicating a 60% probability of a deficient year.
- The northeast is projected to have normal rainfall, whereas the northwest, central India, the peninsula, and key agricultural zones are expected to experience shortages.
Factors Influencing Monsoon
- Monsoon distribution, characterized by sudden long dry spells, is crucial as it can affect crop watering.
- The current monsoon coincides with input crises, influenced by the West Asia conflict and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy and fertilizer supply.
Historical Context
Historically, 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have resulted in deficient or below-normal rains, with severe droughts recorded in 2002 and 2009, and significant shortfalls in 2014 and 2015.
Government Actions and Recommendations
- The government should not rely on a late positive swing from the Indian Ocean Dipole.
- Activation of the Agriculture, Jal Shakti, and Consumer Affairs Ministries is essential, along with disaster management authorities.
- Farmers should be advised to grow short-duration pulses, oilseeds, and millets instead of water-intensive paddy.
- Effective management of groundwater and reservoirs, along with preparation for crop insurance and relief, is crucial.
Additional Challenges
- India will likely face more intense heat days, exacerbated by dry landscapes.
- The government has recently claimed a record kharif production, but must prepare for adverse conditions.
