India's Path to Becoming a Developed Country by 2047

India aims to achieve developed country status by 2047, a challenging goal requiring integration into global markets and supply chains. Historical examples like Japan, South Korea, and China show the necessity of global market access for economic prosperity.

The Broken Multilateral Trading System

• The World Trade Organization's Doha round has expired, and its dispute settlement mechanism is ineffective.
• Trade rules are now being defined in regional agreements rather than through global consensus.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

This Pacific-based trade agreement includes 12 economies, such as Japan, Canada, Australia, and Vietnam, contributing to 13.5% of global output with 500 million consumers.

• Trade within the bloc has grown by over 7% annually since 2019.
• CPTPP offers diversified trade ranging from primary goods to capital equipment.

India's Current Trade Status with CPTPP

• India exports around $62 billion annually to the bloc, which is less than 1.5% of the bloc's imports.
• India's exports include pharmaceuticals, refined fuels, and textiles, with a median share of around 5% in its largest export lines to the group.
• Barriers, not incapacity, are the main reasons for India's modest trade presence.

The Case for Joining CPTPP

• India's withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in 2019 was due to fear of Chinese goods flooding the market. However, CPTPP does not include China, and its rules prevent token processing for outsiders.
• The CPTPP is more favorable than its predecessor due to suspended clauses on intellectual property and procurement, which would have affected Indian industries.
• Potential re-entry of the U.S. into the agreement could make terms more stringent, so India should act promptly.

Domestic Benefits and Strategic Trade Relationships

• Joining CPTPP could stimulate economic activities in India's eastern and southern regions, diversifying export geography.
• India already has trade agreements with several CPTPP members, making accession a natural progression in its strategy.

Conclusion and Strategic Implications

While India should continue negotiations with the U.S. and EU, joining CPTPP offers an immediate, viable opportunity aligning with current trade strategies. India's participation is pivotal before geopolitical changes make entry more difficult.