Impact of Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas
The recent floods in Nepal have highlighted the issue of the Himalayas' melting glaciers. While disasters are a visible consequence, the gradual economic impact due to unreliable water supplies and changing river patterns is significant.
Economic Dependence on the Himalayas
- A report titled 'A Resilient Himalaya: Protecting a Region at Risk and Securing Future Prosperity' estimates that more than one-fifth of India’s GDP is reliant on the Himalayas.
- This amounts to Rs 64.8 lakh crore or 21.5% of India's FY24 GDP.
- The figure represents economic activity tied to Himalayan water, not direct climate damages.
Importance of Glaciers
- Glaciers serve as natural water reservoirs, releasing meltwater during dry seasons.
- Himalayan river basins may hit "Peak Water" mid-century, after which flows will decline.
- The Hindu Kush Himalaya could lose up to 80% of its current glacier volume by 2100.
Calculating the Economic Impact
- The report uses three layers to estimate GDP dependence:
- Direct: GSDP of Himalayan states.
- Indirect: Downstream agriculture, manufacturing, hydropower, and services relying on Himalayan-fed waters.
- Induced: Supply-chain and wage-spending effects.
Disaster Hotspot
- The Himalayas cover 18% of India’s land but account for 35% of its disasters, which lead to food and water insecurity and disrupt supply chains.
Black Carbon and Glacier Melt
- Black carbon, produced by incomplete combustion, is a significant polluter contributing to glacier mass loss.
- Industry, especially brick kilns, is a major source, contributing 32-42% of South Asian black carbon.
- Switching to zigzag kiln technology can reduce black carbon emissions by 70% and fuel use by 20–30%.
Recommendations and Additional Insights
- A targeted fund is proposed to upgrade brick kilns and reduce demand for fired bricks.
- Broader measures are needed, including addressing cookstoves, transport, and crop-residue burning collectively.
