Overview of 2024 Financial Markets

In 2024, risk assets like Bitcoin, gold, and US equities experienced notable growth, with the S&P 500 index achieving over 25% returns for the second consecutive year. This performance harkens back to the dot-com bubble period of 1997-98. Emerging market assets lagged with an 8% increase, while European equities rose by 9.5%. Gold outperformed equities with a 27.5% rise, and Bitcoin was exceptional with a 120% return.

Concerns about US Equity Markets

• There is apprehension about high valuations, increased retail sentiment, and potential inflation.
• The CAPE ratio is at its highest since the dot-com bubble, with other metrics also exceeding those levels.
• Historical data suggests starting valuations are crucial for predicting long-term returns.
• Concerns exist regarding a possible inflation resurgence, with the PCE deflator still below 2%.
• The US economy shows resilience, with job growth and consumption levels exceeding forecasts.
• The Federal Reserve remains cautious about potential rate changes, impacting market predictions.

Bond Markets and Fiscal Challenges

Globally, bond markets appear unstable, with developed markets facing fiscal challenges and political reluctance to address these issues. A possible increase in bond yields to over 5% could test market resilience.

Investment Strategies and Contrarian Views

• It may be strategic to shift portfolios toward emerging markets and Europe, countering the prevalent belief in perpetual American outperformance.
• No asset class or region maintains dominance indefinitely, as demonstrated by historical performance variations.
• The current overvalued dollar and investor positioning suggest potential benefits from contrarian investments.

Bullish Perspectives on the US Market

Some analysts argue that high valuations are not immediate indicators, and markets can remain overvalued for extended periods. Historical parallels to the dot-com bubble show prolonged market gains even at high CAPE levels.

• US economic growth, though projected at 2.1%, consistently surpasses expectations.
• Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to boost productivity and profitability significantly.
• Major US companies are poised to invest over $240 billion in AI-related capital expenditures in 2025, potentially driving exceptional economic performance.
• Leading indicators of recession have reversed, with the Federal Reserve contemplating rate cuts, not hikes.

Investment Caution and Conclusion

The possibility of repeating the dot-com bubble raises caution. The current market's retail sentiment, narrowness, and tech-heavy focus suggest high vulnerability. Diversifying beyond US equities could be prudent, considering historical market volatilities.

India's Retail Inflation

India's retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.2% in December, primarily due to a decline in food prices.

Key Economic Insights

• Economists are divided on a possible rate cut in February, citing the need to monitor geopolitical developments.
• The rupee depreciation has led to concerns about higher imported inflation, especially for oil products.
• The rupee fell below 86 per dollar, marking a significant depreciation.
• Average inflation in 2024 was 5%, lower than the 5.7% recorded in 2023.
• Rural inflation was higher at 5.8% compared to 4.6% in urban areas.

Monetary Policy

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet from February 5-7. The policy rate has been unchanged at 6.5% for 11 consecutive times.

• Aditi Nayar emphasized that the significant decline in vegetable prices might lead some MPC members to consider an early rate cut.
• Paras Jasrai noted that fiscal arithmetic could influence monetary policy actions.

Inflation Details

• Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, was at a three-month low of 3.6% in December.
• Food inflation fell to a four-month low of 8.4% in December from 9% in November.
• Vegetable prices increased by 26.6% in December but were at a four-month low overall.
• Inflation was higher in 10 out of 22 states and UTs compared to the national average, with Chhattisgarh recording the highest at 7.6%.

Future Projections

• The RBI projects inflation to be at 4.5% for the January-March quarter.