Donald Trump's Second Presidential Term Agenda

Introduction

Donald Trump's presidential campaign rhetoric is being realized in action as he embarks on his second term with few political constraints. His policies are likely to be implemented with little opposition due to Republican control of Congress and right-leaning Supreme Court decisions.

Political Environment

• The US political structure features a system of checks and balances with a separation of powers.
• However, Trump's presidency faces minimal restraint as both the legislature and judiciary are aligned with his agenda.
• The federal nature of the US may offer some constraints, particularly from Democratic-governed states.
• Social media influence, with support from corporate leaders like Elon Musk, could overpower opposition from civil society and liberal media.

Media Influence and TikTok

• Trump has reconsidered the ban on TikTok, allowing it to operate as a joint venture with a US company.
• Potential acquisition by Elon Musk could enhance Trump's influence over public opinion.
• Expect a shift towards a more polemical and populist media narrative.

Climate and Energy Policies

• Trump has exited the Paris Climate Agreement, emphasizing fossil fuel exploration with the slogan, “Drill, baby, drill.”
• This includes opening wilderness areas in Alaska for oil exploration and increasing LNG exports.
• An “energy emergency” is declared despite US self-sufficiency in fossil fuels.
• India might benefit short-term from lower energy prices, but long-term climate action setbacks could have adverse effects.

Immigration Policies

• A national emergency declared on the US-Mexico border will resume border wall construction and focus on deporting illegal immigrants.
• Indian immigrants might face repatriation, although the H-1B visa program could continue for skilled workers.

Trade Policies

• While tariffs are central to Trump's agenda, specific measures are not yet announced.
• Threats of tariffs against Mexico and Canada are used as leverage to address illicit drug exports and illegal immigration.
• A new External Revenue Service will be set up to manage tariff revenues.
• India may face trade pressures similar to those during Trump's first term, with increased oil, gas, and defense imports as possible solutions.

International Relations and China

• No sharp rhetoric against China was included in Trump's initial addresses.
• Positive comments about conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping suggest potential tactical cooperation.
• This development could pose risks for India's strategic interests.
• The Quad's commitment, highlighted by a ministerial meeting and plans for an upcoming summit in India, provides some reassurance.