Indus Waters Treaty in Abeyance
The Ministry of External Affairs of India is considering the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in response to a recent incident involving tourists in Pahalgam. This decision could have significant implications for Pakistan's agriculture, food security, and energy supplies.
Implications of Treaty Suspension
- India aims to build its infrastructure on the Indus Water Basin rivers without adhering to treaty obligations, potentially reducing water flow to Pakistan.
- Immediate cessation of water supplies is unlikely due to the lack of large-scale water reservoirs on the Indian side.
- Significant impact may occur once reservoirs are constructed, allowing India to control water flow.
- Pakistan may face water shortages during low-flow months, especially once infrastructure developments are complete.
Current Water Levels and Reservoir Status
- As of April 23, water levels in two major reservoirs are just above dead levels, indicating potential electricity generation issues.
- Post-monsoon rains were insufficient, leading to reliance on snowmelt for river flow.
Information Sharing and Impact on Pakistan
- Suspending the treaty means India might stop sharing river flow information with Pakistan, creating an information blackout.
Indus Waters Treaty Overview
- Signed in 1960, brokered by the World Bank, the treaty is a durable water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan.
- India controls the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
- Pakistan controls the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, which constitute 80% of the shared basin’s water.
- India is allowed to use water from the western rivers for hydropower and irrigation but cannot divert or impact downstream flow.
Significance for Pakistan
- The three western rivers are crucial for Pakistan’s agriculture, supporting cotton, paddy, and horticulture production.
- Suspension of the treaty gives India leverage to build projects affecting the rivers' downstream flow to Pakistan.
