India-Pakistan Military Conflict: New and Old Dimensions
The recurring military conflicts between India and Pakistan raise questions about new developments and enduring aspects. Recent hostilities have introduced several novel elements while maintaining some old patterns.
New Elements in Contemporary Warfare
- Use of Drones: Both India and Pakistan have extensively deployed drones in recent conflicts, marking a significant departure from past military engagements.
- Involvement of New Military Technology:
- Questions arise about Pakistan's use of Chinese aircraft and missiles against India's Rafale jets.
- India reportedly utilized Israeli weaponry, moving beyond the traditional American and Soviet arms dynamic.
Strikes within Pakistani Territory
- Deep Strikes: India's military operations in Pakistani Punjab, particularly in Muridke and Bahawalpur, represent significant advancements.
- These cities are known hubs for groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
- Historical Context: The 1971 conflict did not involve strikes in southern Punjab, highlighting the significance of these recent actions.
Role of the United States in Peace-making
- US Intervention: Unlike past reluctance, the US has recently intervened, concerned about potential nuclear implications.
- Realpolitik Dynamics: The intervention highlights the power imbalance between India and the US, despite close ties.
Religious Nationalism
- Simultaneous Nationalism in India and Pakistan:
- India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is associated with Hindu nationalism.
- Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir is an Islamist, reviving the two-nation theory.
- Historical Perspectives: The rise of religious nationalism contrasts with earlier periods where secular nationalism prevailed in India.
The Theory of Deterrence
- Deterrence through Nuclear Weapons and External Intervention: International Relations theory suggests these factors could prevent war between arch-antagonists.
- The current geopolitical scenario will test this theory, with hopes for peace prevailing.
This analysis reflects the personal views of the writer, a distinguished professor at Brown University, with expertise in International Studies and South Asia.