Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and Its Current Context

India had requested a review, amendment, and renegotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which has sustained despite India-Pakistan tensions for 65 years. However, India suspended the Treaty following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. The issue of transboundary river water sharing is likely to become a central facet of India-Pakistan relations, alongside terrorism and the Kashmir dispute.

Uttam Kumar Sinha’s Analysis

• Uttam Kumar Sinha, a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, assesses the IWT through the lens of India-Pakistan relations in his new book, Trial by Water (2025).
• His earlier work, Indus Basin Uninterrupted (2021), provided a historical account of the Indus basin's role in shaping the political and economic landscape of the region.

Division of Water and Motivations Behind the Treaty

• The IWT allocated about 80% of the water from the six rivers of the Indus system to Pakistan, based on geographical and natural river courses rather than volumetric assessments.
• India's motivations under Jawaharlal Nehru included fostering peaceful coexistence with Pakistan and focusing on developmental goals.
• Pakistan’s interest stemmed from the strategic leverage of upper riparian states, aware of its dependency on the river flows.

Challenges and Strategic Dynamics

• Despite the favorable 80:20 water distribution, Pakistan has not celebrated it, realizing the strategic balance favors India.
• India has not fully utilized its rights over the western rivers, but Pakistan has used IWT provisions to delay Indian projects in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K).
• Pakistan's desire for control over river flows ties into its broader ambitions regarding Kashmir.

Survival and Impact of the Treaty

• The IWT has withstood four wars and several tensions, attributed to India's responsibility for ensuring minimum flows and sharing information.
• India, as the upper riparian state, has significant influence over downstream impacts.

Current Standoff and Future Implications

• India is likely to insist on bilateral renegotiation of the Treaty, excluding third-party involvement like the World Bank.
• Pakistan, recognizing its advantageous position, is likely to resist modifications.
• India's abeyance of the Treaty aims to fully exercise its rights and pursue water projects in J&K.
• The strategic advantage of its upper riparian position could pressure Pakistan to reconsider its stance on cross-border terrorism.