Monsoon Arrival in India

The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala earlier than its usual schedule, making its entry on May 24 instead of June 1. This early onset was forewarned by meteorologists due to developments in the Andaman Sea and a pre-cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea.

Historical Context and Impact

• Since 2014, a May onset has occurred four times, but this year was notable due to the additional support from the Arabian Sea.
• Mumbai experienced monsoon rains in May for the first time in 35 years, ahead of its typical June 10 start.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) Forecast

• In mid-April, the IMD forecasted an 'above normal' monsoon, initially predicting a 5% increase over the historical average of 87 cm, now updated to 6%.
• The IMD considers rainfall from June 1 to September 30 as 'monsoon rainfall,' with rains before this window classified as 'pre-monsoon.'

Implications for Agriculture and Urban Areas

Increased rainfall is generally seen as beneficial for agriculture, particularly kharif sowing, enhancing grain reserves and export potential. However, with urbanization, excessive rainfall also poses challenges:

• Flooding affects not only major cities but also tier-2 and tier-3 towns, many of which are inadequately equipped for heavy rainfall.
• State and central administrations need to address climate change impacts, which lead to erratic rainfall and increased flooding risks.

Forecasting and Preparedness

While improved forecasts are beneficial, they require societal efforts to utilize these warnings effectively to mitigate the risks associated with erratic monsoon patterns.