India Meteorological Department's Monsoon Forecast 2026

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon in 2026 is likely to be ‘below normal’ at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). If realized, this would mark the first instance of a ‘below normal’ monsoon since 2023.

Key Points of the Forecast

• Model Error Margin: The forecast carries an error margin of plus or minus 5%.
• El Niño Conditions: The primary reason for below-normal rainfall is attributed to the development of El Niño conditions from June to September.
• Regional Impact: Most parts of India except some in the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular regions are expected to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall.
• Long Period Average: The LPA for the monsoon season is 87 cm. Therefore, the expected average rainfall could be around 80.04 cm.

Probabilities of Monsoon Outcomes

• 35% chance of being ‘deficient’ (less than 90% of LPA).
• 31% chance of being ‘below normal’ (90-95% of LPA).
• 34% chance of being ‘normal’, ‘above normal’, or ‘excess’.

Impact on Agriculture

• Kharif Crops: Below-normal monsoon years do not always result in low kharif output if the rainfall's timing and distribution are favorable.
• Risk to Pulses and Oilseeds: These crops, primarily grown in non-irrigated areas, are vulnerable to below-normal rainfall.
• Economic Implications: Reduced output could increase import bills, impact food inflation, and potentially slow economic growth.

Additional Influencing Factors

• Irrigation Coverage: There has been an improvement from 49.3% to 55% of the Gross Cropped Area (GCA) between FY16 and FY21.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Expected to turn positive towards the end of the season, potentially benefiting rainfall.
• Snow Cover: Slightly below normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere may inversely affect the monsoon.

M K Dhanuka, chairman of Dhanuka Agritech Limited, emphasized the importance of planning, particularly for crops like paddy, cotton, pulses, and oilseeds, considering the below-normal forecast. The IMD will release an updated forecast in late May, which will include the onset date of the monsoon.