Extreme Heat Risk in India
A recent study highlights that approximately 76% of India's population is at high to very high risk from extreme heat. The regions most affected include Delhi, Maharashtra, Goa, Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.
Study Details
- Conducted by Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) researchers.
- The study is titled 'How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level Heat Risk'.
- A heat risk index (HRI) was developed, assessing heat risk across 734 districts.
- The index uses 35 indicators, including:
- Frequency of very hot days
- Population density
- Percentage of persons with disabilities
- Change in land use and land cover
Understanding Heat Risk
Heat risk refers to the probability of experiencing heat-related illnesses or death due to extreme temperatures. It differs from heatwaves and heat stress and depends on three factors:
- Intensity of heat and its compounding effects like humidity
- Degree of exposure
- Underlying vulnerabilities of communities
Factors Driving Heat Risk
- Rise in Very Warm Nights: From 2012 to 2022, more than 70% of districts experienced an increase in warm nights, leading to higher health risks.
- Increase in Relative Humidity: North India saw a rise in relative humidity, exacerbating heat stress.
- High Population Density and Urbanisation: Areas like Mumbai and Delhi are highly exposed due to dense populations and rapid urbanisation, increasing vulnerability.
Significance
The year 2024 was the warmest on record, with global temperatures over 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels. In India, temperatures were about 1.2°C higher compared to the early 20th century. This has resulted in the longest recorded heatwave since 2010 and over 44,000 cases of heatstroke in 2024.
Heat Action Plans (HAPs)
- There are significant gaps in India's HAPs, as most lack long-term strategies to combat extreme heat.
- The study by the Sustainable Futures Collaborative highlighted ineffective implementation of existing strategies.
- Such planning gaps may lead to increased heat-related deaths due to frequent and intense heatwaves.