India-China Disengagement

The India-China disengagement in October 2024 lowered the intensity of the border issue but did not significantly de-escalate troop positions. It was particularly relevant before the U.S. elections.

India's Strategic Orientation

• India has increasingly aligned with the West, affecting its relations with China and Russia.
• Initiatives like Quad, I2U2, and IMEC emphasize this western pivot.
• India's markets and technology sources are primarily Western.
• India exited the RCEP and has developed indigenous alternatives to Chinese technology.

Strategic Autonomy and Challenges

• India's quest for strategic autonomy requires building leverage beyond market size.
• The relationship with Russia is strained due to its alignment with China post-Ukraine invasion.
• China perceives India's western alignment and complicates India's economic aspirations.
• China blocks India's NSG membership and impedes its manufacturing ambitions.

Trade and Economic Strategy

• India should focus on expanding western trade ties and overcoming internal trade management issues.
• Pursue FTAs with the EU and Gulf Cooperation Council.
• Aim to open new markets and lower trade barriers.
• Learn from China in keeping strategic competitors off balance.