Nuclear Crisis Developments

A new nuclear crisis has emerged following U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear site at Fordow in June 2025. On August 28, 2025, the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) triggered the "snapback" clause of the 2015 nuclear deal due to Tehran's violations.

• The "snapback" could lead to the restoration of measures such as halting enrichment, tightening arms transfer controls, and re-designating individuals linked to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
• Global responses vary, with Iran rejecting the move, Washington viewing it as a non-proliferation test, and Europe considering it a test of multilateral commitments.

Global and Regional Implications

Various countries and stakeholders are affected, including:

• Russia and China: Seeking delay and leverage.
• Israel and Gulf states: Weighing warning times and war risks.
• Oil importers and shipping companies: Reassessing prices and insurance.
• Banks: Calculating exposure.
• India: Concerned about regional stability, oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and the safety of eight million Indian citizens in West Asia.

IAEA's Role and Challenges

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plays a crucial role in verifying Iran's nuclear activities. Since strikes on Iranian facilities, IAEA staff left Iran, leading to rumors replacing factual measurements.

• Verification is crucial for diplomacy, anchoring negotiations to data rather than fears.
• IAEA access could calm market volatility and strengthen Iran's claims of a civilian program.
• Tehran's reservations are based on sovereignty and security concerns, fearing inspections might lead to targeted strikes.

India's Strategic Role

India can leverage its position to mediate and support diplomatic efforts.

• As a member of the IAEA Board and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), India can advocate for restoring IAEA access.
• India's IAEA-certified Tarapur facility could assist in sample analysis.
• India's support can help shift momentum towards diplomacy, reducing the risk of military escalation.

The Path Forward

The window for diplomacy is narrowing as Iran shows a small opening by allowing IAEA inspectors into Bushehr for monitoring.

• An agreement between IAEA and Iran was signed on September 9, 2025, in Cairo.
• India’s support of verification efforts aligns with its interests in West Asia, marking it as a responsible global power.
• The emphasis is on letting "Geiger counters, not guesses," decide Iran's nuclear program's future.