Pakistan's Security Challenges and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

Pakistan's relationship with Afghanistan has deteriorated due to border clashes and the presence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which finds refuge in Afghanistan. The resurgence of violence in Pakistan, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, poses significant security challenges.

Rising Violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

• In 2024, Pakistan experienced its worst violence in a decade, with over 1,600 deaths, including 680 security personnel.
• Military operations exceeded 59,770, resulting in approximately 900 militant deaths.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan together accounted for 94% of casualties, with KP alone responsible for 63%.

Historical and Political Context

The TTP's demands include the demerger of tribal regions from KP, the removal of security forces, and the imposition of Shariah law. These stem from historical grievances related to the colonial legacy and the lack of federal authority in tribal regions.

• The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were created by the British as a buffer with Afghanistan.
• The region was governed separately through the Frontier Crime Regulation (FCR) and directly administered by Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
• In 2018, the 25th constitutional amendment merged FATA with KP, which the TTP opposes.

Strategic Depth and Civil-Military Imbalance

• Pakistan's military viewed the tribal regions as a strategic asset for influence in Afghanistan.
• Political and military establishments neglected local governance and representation, allowing space for the TTP's emergence.

Afghan Taliban and TTP Connection

The TTP formed due to the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda seeking refuge in tribal regions post the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. Despite the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, the Afghan Taliban maintains ties with the TTP, complicating Pakistan's security landscape.

Inconsistent Policy Approach

• After the 2014 Peshawar Army Public School attack, Pakistan launched a "National Action Plan" against terrorism.
• However, policies fluctuated between military action and negotiation with the TTP.
• Recent dialogues and ceasefires failed to resolve the militant threat.

Political and Social Dynamics in Tribal Regions

• Pakistan's failure to encourage alternative political players has left a vacuum filled by the TTP.
• The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) represented a potential new political force but was banned by the state.

External Blame Narrative

• A national consensus blames external actors, namely the Afghan Taliban and India, for supporting the TTP.
• This narrative diverts attention from internal policy failures and the need for a new strategy in tribal regions.

Concluding Insights

Pakistan's challenges with the TTP require a nuanced approach that considers internal political dynamics and avoids over-reliance on blaming external actors. Effective governance and fostering new political leadership in tribal regions are crucial for long-term stability.