Structural Reset in the West-Led Economic Order
The traditional economic order dominated by the West is transitioning due to geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain disruptions, and demographic changes, leading to a more multipolar world. This shift is structural and driven by regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
The Rise of the Global South
- The ‘global south’ comprises 85% of the world’s population and nearly 40% of global GDP.
- By 2030, it is expected to host two-thirds of the world’s middle class, fueling unprecedented consumption.
- The region is increasingly trading within itself, investing internally, and innovating at scale.
Implications for Global Trade and Economy
- Global goods trade is projected to reach $32.6 trillion over the next decade, with the ‘global south’ driving 44% of exports.
- Intra-Asian trade represents 59% of Asia’s total trade.
- Trade corridors linking South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and West Asia are growing faster than the global average.
India's Role in the New Economic Order
India is emerging as a key player, exemplified by:
- Digital infrastructure enabling real-time financial inclusion.
- Innovations in vaccine and pharmaceuticals reaching over 150 countries.
- Contributing nearly 6% to global trade growth in the next five years.
- Hosting 18% of the world’s digital transactions.
- Building economic partnerships across Africa, Latin America, and West Asia.
Strategies for Future Development
- Scale outbound ambition: Increased outward direct investment (ODI) and ecosystem building by Indian companies.
- Invest in basics: Focus on rural infrastructure as growth multipliers.
- Build digital and AI infrastructure: Establish AI data centers and export digital services to emerging economies.
India’s rise is a result of sustained innovation, institutional scale, and collaboration between public and private sectors. It has the potential to lead the global south in shaping a new chapter of globalization characterized by inclusion, digital empowerment, and shared prosperity.
